ATL⇄HOU

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$11.2M net +1.7

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2008 odds 8% → 11% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh AndersonOF·25y·L/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#119 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Tal Smith net −$11.2M net -1.7

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2008 odds 21% → 16% (-5.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Óscar VillarrealP·26y·L/R

+$0.9M+$0.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.