COL⇄HOU

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$30.4M net +3.7

received +$85.6M+$85.6M ± $54M expected surplus · +$21.6M realized received 11.6 ± 7 expected · 4.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2007 odds 25% → 39% (+14.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willy TaverasOF·25y·R/R

+$76.2M+$76.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 9.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.26/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Taylor BuchholzP·25y·R/R

+$8.5M+$8.5M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

#175 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jason HirshP·25y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

Composite #42.0 pedigree (Baseball America #42 (2007)) → 0.64/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Tim Purpura net −$30.4M net -3.7

received +$36.0M+$28.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 3.7 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2007 odds 3% → 2% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason JenningsP·28y·L/R

+$33.0M+$25.1M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 3.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel AsencioP·26y·R/R

+$3.4M+$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.