HOU⇄TBR

HOUHOU Tal Smith net +$15.2M net +2.8

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $12M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2007 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ty Wigginton1B/3B·29y·R/R

+$2.5M+$2.5M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$15.2M net -2.8

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2007 odds 4% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan WheelerP·29y·R/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.