RRosternomics
𝕏

Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Tal Smith

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.06× league · TAB -10.7
-10.7TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-9.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
39%dead money %23rd/30
0.451win %21st/30
24.3roster fWAR27th/30
-39surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$87Mpayroll $M12th/30

Roster

CFHunter Pence 95GChris Burke 26GJosh Anderson 15G
LFCarlos Lee 157GOrlando Palmeiro 11GLuke Scott 5G
RFLuke Scott 101GLance Berkman 31GChris Burke 20G
SSMark Loretta 72GAdam Everett 66GEric Bruntlett 63G
2BCraig Biggio 114GChris Burke 58GMark Loretta 49G
3BTy Wigginton 80GMike Lamb 58GMark Loretta 23G
1BLance Berkman 126GMike Lamb 43GMark Loretta 24G
STARTERSRoy Oswalt 4.8WARWandy Rodriguez 2.9WARBrandon Backe 0.4WARWoody Williams 0.3WARJason Jennings 0.3WAR
CBrad Ausmus 114GEric Munson 43GHumberto Quintero 26G
DHCraig Biggio 4GCarlos Lee 3GLance Berkman 1G
BULLPEN★ Brad Lidge 19svChad Qualls 21hTrever Miller 12hDave Borkowski 8hDennis Sarfate 3hBrian Moehler 1hMark McLemore 1hStephen Randolph 0h
CBrad Ausmus 114 · Eric Munson 43 · Humberto Quintero 26
1BLance Berkman 126 · Mike Lamb 43 · Mark Loretta 24
2BCraig Biggio 114 · Chris Burke 58 · Mark Loretta 49
3BTy Wigginton 80 · Mike Lamb 58 · Mark Loretta 23
SSMark Loretta 72 · Adam Everett 66 · Eric Bruntlett 63
LFCarlos Lee 157 · Orlando Palmeiro 11 · Luke Scott 5
CFHunter Pence 95 · Chris Burke 26 · Josh Anderson 15
RFLuke Scott 101 · Lance Berkman 31 · Chris Burke 20
DHCraig Biggio 4 · Carlos Lee 3 · Lance Berkman 1
SPRoy Oswalt 4.8 · Wandy Rodriguez 2.9 · Brandon Backe 0.4 · Woody Williams 0.3 · Jason Jennings 0.3
BP★ Brad Lidge 19 · Chad Qualls 21 · Trever Miller 12 · Dave Borkowski 8 · Dennis Sarfate 3 · Brian Moehler 1 · Mark McLemore 1 · Stephen Randolph 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Roy Oswalt 29 FA-elig 334.8 13.0 -2.6
Hunter Pence 24 – 1083.5 0.4 +7.2
Wandy Rodriguez 28 pre-arb 322.9 0.4 +5.9
Lance Berkman 31 FA-elig 1532.8 14.5 -8.4
Carlos Lee 31 FA-elig 1622.6 11.5 -5.9
Luke Scott 29 pre-arb 1322.3 0.4 +4.6
Mike Lamb 31 FA-elig 1241.8 2.7 +1.2
Mark Loretta 35 FA-elig 1330.8 2.5 -0.7
Chad Qualls 28 arb 790.8 0.4 +1.3
Brad Lidge 30 arb 660.8 5.3 -3.6
J.R. Towles 23 – 140.6 – –
Ty Wigginton↔ TBR 29 arb 500.6 0.9 +0.4
Dan Wheeler↔ TBR 29 FA-elig 450.6 1.4 -0.1
Eric Bruntlett 29 – 800.5 – –
Adam Everett 30 FA-elig 660.5 2.8 -1.8
Dennis Sarfate 26 – 70.4 – –
Brandon Backe 29 arb 70.4 0.5 +0.3
Jason Jennings 28 FA-elig 210.3 5.5 -4.9
Woody Williams 40 FA-elig 340.3 6.0 -5.4
Chris Sampson 29 pre-arb 250.2 0.4 +0.1
Josh Anderson 24 – 210.2 – –
Cody Ransom 31 – 190.2 – –
Mark McLemore 26 – 290.2 – –
Juan Gutierrez 23 – 70.1 – –
Dave Borkowski 30 FA-elig 640.1 0.6 -0.3
Trever Miller 34 FA-elig 760.1 1.3 -1.2
Brian Moehler 35 FA-elig 420.0 0.5 -0.5
Troy Patton 21 – 3-0.0 – –
Travis Driskill 35 – 2-0.0 – –
Eric Munson 29 – 50-0.0 – –
Orlando Palmeiro 38 FA-elig 101-0.1 0.9 -1.1
Humberto Quintero 27 arb 29-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Brad Ausmus 38 FA-elig 117-0.2 4.0 -4.3
Rick White↔ SEA 38 FA-elig 23-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Felipe Paulino 23 – 5-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Matt Albers 24 – 31-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Stephen Randolph 33 – 14-0.4 – –
Chris Burke 27 arb 111-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Jason Lane↔ SDP 30 arb 68-0.6 1.0 -2.2
Craig Biggio 41 FA-elig 141-0.8 5.2 -6.9
Morgan Ensberg↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 85-0.8 3.2 -5.0

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Hunter Pence3.5
Carlos Lee2.6
Mark Loretta0.8
J.R. Towles0.6
Ty Wigginton0.6
Dennis Sarfate0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Andy Pettitte3.7
Roger Clemens3.5
Willy Taveras3.3
Taylor Buchholz0.4
Charlton Jimerson0.1
Fernando Nieve0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$87.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Lance Berkman318.000$14.5M$14.5M$14.5M$10.1MFREE AGENT
Roy Oswalt296.000$13.0M$13.0M$14.0M$8.6MFREE AGENT
Carlos Lee318.000$11.5M$12.5M$19.0M$19.0M$19.0M$10.3MFREE AGENT
Woody Williams4014.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Jennings286.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Craig Biggio4119.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Ausmus3814.000$4.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Morgan Ensberg317.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Everett306.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Mike Lamb317.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mark Loretta3512.000$2.5M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Dan Wheeler298.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3411.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Orlando Palmeiro3812.000$950kFREE AGENT
Dave Borkowski308.000$575k$800kFREE AGENT
Brian Moehler3511.000$500k$500k$2.3M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Rick White3813.000$476kFREE AGENT
Eric Munson297.000—FREE AGENT
Cody Ransom316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Brad Lidge305.000$5.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Lane305.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton295.000$912kFREE AGENT
Brandon Backe295.000$545kFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls283.000$441kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Burke273.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Quintero274.000$385kARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Randolph334.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bruntlett294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Wandy Rodriguez282.000$406kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Scott292.000$382kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sampson291.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Pence240.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers241.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Paulino230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Driskill35–—
Dennis Sarfate261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Gutierrez230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark McLemore26–—
J.R. Towles230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Anderson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Patton210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.