RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

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GM: Dana Brown

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 8 in this regime · payroll 1.12× league · TAB +3.1
+3.1TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+3.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
11%dead money %1st/30
0.537win %11th/30
38.7roster fWAR10th/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$173Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFJake Meyers 103GChas McCormick 30GTaylor Trammell 29G
LFMauricio Dubón 48GJose Altuve 47GCooper Hummel 28G
RFCam Smith 132GJesús Sánchez 101GChas McCormick 18G
SSJeremy Peña 124GCarlos Correa 97GMauricio Dubón 33G
2BJose Altuve 66GMauricio Dubón 46GBrendan Rodgers 41G
3BIsaac Paredes 89GRamón Urías 78GCarlos Correa 48G
1BChristian Walker 152GVictor Caratini 15GZach Dezenzo 4G
STARTERSHunter Brown 4.6WARFramber Valdez 4.0WARCristian Javier 0.9WARBrandon Walter 0.8WARRonel Blanco 0.6WAR
CYainer Diaz 113GVictor Caratini 49GCésar Salazar 8G
DHJose Altuve 49GYordan Alvarez 32GVictor Caratini 30G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 28svBryan King 27hBryan Abreu 25hSteven Okert 10hHéctor Neris 7hBennett Sousa 7hEnyel De Los Santos 6hKaleb Ort 3h
CYainer Diaz 113 · Victor Caratini 49 · César Salazar 8
1BChristian Walker 152 · Victor Caratini 15 · Zach Dezenzo 4
2BJose Altuve 66 · Mauricio Dubón 46 · Brendan Rodgers 41
3BIsaac Paredes 89 · Ramón Urías 78 · Carlos Correa 48
SSJeremy Peña 124 · Carlos Correa 97 · Mauricio Dubón 33
LFMauricio Dubón 48 · Jose Altuve 47 · Cooper Hummel 28
CFJake Meyers 103 · Chas McCormick 30 · Taylor Trammell 29
RFCam Smith 132 · Jesús Sánchez 101 · Chas McCormick 18
DHJose Altuve 49 · Yordan Alvarez 32 · Victor Caratini 30
SPHunter Brown 4.6 · Framber Valdez 4.0 · Cristian Javier 0.9 · Brandon Walter 0.8 · Ronel Blanco 0.6
BP★ Josh Hader 28 · Bryan King 27 · Bryan Abreu 25 · Steven Okert 10 · Héctor Neris 7 · Bennett Sousa 7 · Enyel De Los Santos 6 · Kaleb Ort 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jeremy Peña 27 arb 1255.7 4.1 +18.5
Hunter Brown 26 pre-arb 314.6 0.9 +17.3
Framber Valdez 31 arb 314.0 18.0 -2.1
Isaac Paredes 26 arb 1022.4 6.6 +3.0
Jake Meyers 29 arb 1042.3 2.3 +6.7
Bryan Abreu 28 arb 702.2 3.5 +5.4
Mauricio Dubón 30 arb 1332.2 5.0 +3.7
Jose Altuve 35 FA-elig 1552.1 33.0 -24.6
Steven Okert 33 arb 681.6 1.2 +5.1
Yainer Diaz 26 pre-arb 1431.6 0.8 +5.5
Carlos Correa↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 511.6 3.0 +3.2
Christian Walker 34 FA-elig 1541.1 20.0 -15.6
Josh Hader 31 FA-elig 481.1 19.1 -14.7
Bennett Sousa 30 pre-arb 441.1 0.8 +3.6
Ryan Gusto↔ MIA 26 – 241.1 0.5 +3.8
Cam Smith 22 – 1341.0 0.8 +3.3
Cristian Javier 28 arb 80.9 10.4 -7.0
Victor Caratini 31 FA-elig 1140.8 6.0 -2.7
Brandon Walter 28 pre-arb 90.8 0.5 +2.8
Bryan King 28 pre-arb 680.7 0.8 +2.0
Ronel Blanco 31 pre-arb 90.6 0.8 +1.5
Yordan Alvarez 28 arb 480.5 15.8 -13.7
Jason Alexander↔ OAK 32 pre-arb 140.5 0.3 +1.6
Zach Cole 24 – 150.5 – –
Jayden Murray 28 – 90.3 0.1 +0.9
Ramón Urías↔ BAL 31 arb 350.2 0.8 +0.0
Hayden Wesneski 27 pre-arb 60.2 0.8 -0.1
AJ Blubaugh 24 – 110.1 0.2 +0.4
Brice Matthews 23 – 130.1 0.1 +0.3
Luis Garcia 28 arb 20.1 1.9 -1.6
Zach Dezenzo 25 pre-arb 340.1 0.8 -0.5
J.P. France 30 pre-arb 20.1 0.7 -0.5
Rafael Montero↔ ATL 34 – 30.1 0.4 -0.2
Colton Gordon 26 – 200.0 0.5 -0.3
Zack Short 30 pre-arb 220.0 0.1 +0.0
César Salazar 29 pre-arb 110.0 0.4 -0.4
Kenedy Corona 25 – 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Craig Kimbrel↔ ATL 37 FA-elig 130.0 0.4 -0.4
Jordan Weems 32 arb 4-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Jesús Sánchez↔ MIA 27 arb 48-0.0 1.1 -1.3
Luis Guillorme 30 – 12-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Luis Contreras 29 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Enyel De Los Santos↔ ATL 29 – 22-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Logan VanWey 26 – 9-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Spencer Arrighetti 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.8 -1.1
John Rooney 28 – 1-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Héctor Neris↔ ANA 36 – 12-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Forrest Whitley↔ TBR 27 – 5-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Chas McCormick 30 arb 66-0.2 2.9 -3.5
Jon Singleton 33 – 3-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Taylor Trammell 27 pre-arb 52-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Nick Hernandez 30 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Lance McCullers Jr. 31 – 16-0.2 – –
Cooper Hummel↔ BAL 30 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.3 -1.1
Shawn Dubin↔ BAL 29 – 23-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Tayler Scott↔ ARI 33 – 18-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Jacob Melton 24 – 32-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Kaleb Ort 33 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.8 -2.0
Brendan Rodgers 28 arb 43-0.3 2.0 -3.3
Shay Whitcomb 26 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.2 -1.5

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Isaac Paredes2.4
Steven Okert1.6
Carlos Correa1.6
Christian Walker1.1
Bennett Sousa1.1
Ryan Gusto1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Kyle Tucker4.2
Alex Bregman4.2
Yusei Kikuchi1.4
Justin Verlander0.7
Jason Heyward0.3
Joey Loperfido0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$173.3M
2026 guaranteed
$141.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Jose Altuve3513.072$33.0M$33.0M$33.0M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Christian Walker346.124$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Hader317.115$19.1M$19.0M$19.0M$19.0MFREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez285.113$15.8M$26.8M$26.8M$26.8MFREE AGENT
Cristian Javier285.000$10.4M$21.4M$21.4MFREE AGENT
Victor Caratini317.051$6.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Correa309.119$3.0M$21.5M$20.5M$20.0M$25.0MVEST$20.0MVEST$15.0MVEST
Enyel De Los Santos297.000$474kFREE AGENT
Rafael Montero348.095$433kFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel3713.161$379kFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris3611.000$155kFREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.3110.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Framber Valdez315.163$18.0MFREE AGENT
Isaac Paredes263.160$6.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón304.162$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Peña273.000$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu284.022$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chas McCormick304.000$2.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Meyers293.044$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Rodgers285.075$2.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Garcia285.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Steven Okert334.089$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Sánchez273.118$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías314.025$829kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Guillorme305.159$213kFREE AGENT
Jordan Weems323.025$101kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (34)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Hunter Brown262.035$870kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yainer Diaz262.035$806kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronel Blanco311.101$803kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hayden Wesneski271.170$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kaleb Ort331.108$770kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Trammell271.144$765kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Dezenzo250.055$763kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan King280.087$762kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Smith220.000$760kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bennett Sousa301.156$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Arrighetti250.168$752kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. France301.047$695kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Dubin290.156$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Walter280.054$466kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Gusto260.001$461kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colton Gordon260.000$458kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Melton240.000$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Salazar290.139$449kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Alexander321.000$274kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Singleton332.069$260kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hernandez300.061$260kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Hummel301.003$254kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan VanWey260.000$229kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott332.015$188kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Contreras290.019$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shay Whitcomb260.045$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Forrest Whitley270.006$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Blubaugh240.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Rooney28–$155k
Zack Short302.036$139kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brice Matthews230.000$114kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayden Murray280.000$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenedy Corona25–$49k
Zach Cole24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.