HOU⇄MIN

HOUHOU Dana Brown net −$16.8M net +2.7

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $66M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 21.5 ± 8 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2025 odds 26% → 34% (+7.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos CorreaSS·30y·R/R

+$38.8M+$38.8M± $66M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 21.5± 8 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.37/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

3.30/yr blended

Horizon

8.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$16.8M net -2.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2025 odds 14% → 10% (-3.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt MikulskiP·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#50 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.