ANA⇄HOU

ANAANA Perry Minasian net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos EspinosaP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Dana Brown net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2024 odds 45% → 44% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trey CabbageOF·27y·L/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#110 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.