HOU⇄WSN

HOUHOU Dana Brown net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Paul Toboni net −$0.8M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tom CosgroveP·30y·L/L

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#348 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.20 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.