RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+2.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
27%dead money %7th/30
0.531win %12th/30
34.9roster fWAR14th/30
-24surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$118Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFDenard Span 153GBryce Harper 9GEury Pérez 4G
LFBryce Harper 97GRoger Bernadina 29GTyler Moore 29G
RFJayson Werth 126GScott Hairston 31GBryce Harper 16G
SSIan Desmond 158GAnthony Rendon 4GZach Walters 2G
2BAnthony Rendon 82GSteve Lombardozzi Jr. 48GDanny Espinosa 43G
3BRyan Zimmerman 141GAnthony Rendon 15GChad Tracy 14G
1BAdam LaRoche 149GTyler Moore 14GChad Tracy 10G
STARTERSJordan Zimmermann 3.6WARStephen Strasburg 3.3WARGio Gonzalez 3.1WARDan Haren 1.8WARTanner Roark 1.5WAR
CWilson Ramos 77GJhonatan Solano 19GSandy León 1G
DHRyan Zimmerman 4GChad Tracy 3GJayson Werth 2G
BULLPEN★ Rafael Soriano 43svTyler Clippard 33hDrew Storen 24hCraig Stammen 7hRyan Mattheus 6hFernando Abad 2hIan Krol 2hXavier Cedeño 2h
CWilson Ramos 77 · Jhonatan Solano 19 · Sandy León 1
1BAdam LaRoche 149 · Tyler Moore 14 · Chad Tracy 10
2BAnthony Rendon 82 · Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 48 · Danny Espinosa 43
3BRyan Zimmerman 141 · Anthony Rendon 15 · Chad Tracy 14
SSIan Desmond 158 · Anthony Rendon 4 · Zach Walters 2
LFBryce Harper 97 · Roger Bernadina 29 · Tyler Moore 29
CFDenard Span 153 · Bryce Harper 9 · Eury Pérez 4
RFJayson Werth 126 · Scott Hairston 31 · Bryce Harper 16
DHRyan Zimmerman 4 · Chad Tracy 3 · Jayson Werth 2
SPJordan Zimmermann 3.6 · Stephen Strasburg 3.3 · Gio Gonzalez 3.1 · Dan Haren 1.8 · Tanner Roark 1.5
BP★ Rafael Soriano 43 · Tyler Clippard 33 · Drew Storen 24 · Craig Stammen 7 · Ryan Mattheus 6 · Fernando Abad 2 · Ian Krol 2 · Xavier Cedeño 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jayson Werth 34 FA-elig 1294.4 16.0 -4.2
Ian Desmond 27 arb 1584.3 3.8 +7.7
Bryce Harper 20 pre-arb 1184.1 2.0 +8.9
Jordan Zimmermann 27 arb 323.6 5.3 +4.3
Stephen Strasburg 24 arb 303.3 3.9 +5.0
Denard Span 29 arb 1533.2 4.8 +3.8
Gio Gonzalez 27 arb 323.1 6.2 +2.2
Ryan Zimmerman 28 FA-elig 1472.8 14.0 -6.5
Wilson Ramos 25 arb 782.2 0.5 +5.3
Dan Haren 32 FA-elig 311.8 13.0 -8.3
Tanner Roark 26 – 141.5 0.1 +3.9
Craig Stammen 29 arb 551.1 0.9 +2.0
Anthony Rendon 23 pre-arb 981.0 1.8 +1.0
Ross Detwiler 27 FA-elig 130.9 2.3 +0.1
Taylor Jordan 24 pre-arb 90.7 0.3 +1.6
Rafael Soriano 33 FA-elig 680.6 11.0 -9.5
Adam LaRoche 33 FA-elig 1520.5 10.0 -8.7
Tyler Clippard 28 FA-elig 720.4 4.0 -2.8
Fernando Abad 27 pre-arb 390.4 0.4 +0.6
Erik Davis 26 pre-arb 100.3 0.1 +0.6
Drew Storen 25 arb 680.2 2.5 -1.9
Zach Walters 23 – 80.2 0.1 +0.4
Ross Ohlendorf 30 arb 160.2 0.3 +0.2
Xavier Cedeño↔ HOU 26 pre-arb 110.1 0.3 +0.0
Ryan Mattheus 29 pre-arb 370.1 0.5 -0.2
Corey Brown 27 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Sandy León 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Zach Duke↔ CIN 30 FA-elig 12-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Eury Pérez 23 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
David DeJesus↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Jeff Kobernus 25 pre-arb 24-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Chris Marrero 24 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Yunesky Maya 31 arb 1-0.2 2.0 -2.6
Scott Hairston↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 33-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Henry Alberto Rodriguez↔ CHC 26 arb 17-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Ian Krol 22 – 32-0.3 0.3 -1.1
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 24 pre-arb 118-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Jhonatan Solano 27 pre-arb 24-0.4 0.3 -1.4
Kurt Suzuki↔ OAK 29 FA-elig 79-0.5 5.4 -6.6
Nate Karns 25 – 3-0.5 0.0 -1.4
Roger Bernadina↔ PHI 29 arb 85-0.5 0.9 -2.3
Chad Tracy 33 FA-elig 92-0.6 1.0 -2.6
Danny Espinosa 26 arb 44-0.6 0.5 -2.2
Tyler Moore 26 pre-arb 63-1.1 0.5 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Denard Span3.2
Dan Haren1.8
Tanner Roark1.5
Anthony Rendon1.0
Taylor Jordan0.7
Rafael Soriano0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Edwin Jackson2.5
Michael Gonzalez0.6
Michael Morse0.5
John Lannan0.4
Tom Gorzelanny0.2
Cesar Izturis0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$117.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jayson Werth349.102$16.0M$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman287.032$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$18.0M
Dan Haren328.154$13.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano3310.057$11.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Adam LaRoche339.000$10.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Tracy337.116$1.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Hairston337.102$971k$2.5MFREE AGENT
Zach Duke306.125$323kFREE AGENT
David DeJesus338.146$105kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Gio Gonzalez273.162$6.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki295.112$5.4MFREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann273.154$5.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denard Span294.111$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard283.027$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Desmond273.027$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler273.002$2.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina293.146$920kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mattheus293.123$504kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez264.000$387kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Ohlendorf304.060$297kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Stephen Strasburg242.118$3.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen252.140$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Harper200.159$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yunesky Maya310.070$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rendon230.000$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen292.160$875kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa262.033$526kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.242.000$501kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos252.047$501kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Moore260.149$493kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad271.113$356kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño260.122$341kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Krol220.000$289kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonatan Solano271.027$273kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jordan241.047$252kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Kobernus250.162$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Roark260.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Davis261.111$120kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eury Pérez23–$104k
Sandy León240.102$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Brown270.067$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Walters230.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Marrero240.114$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Karns250.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.