RRosternomics
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Nationals WSN

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GM: Michael Rizzo

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB +10.5
+10.5TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+17.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
26%dead money %7th/30
0.605win %1st/30
43.2roster fWAR7th/30
+22surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$88Mpayroll $M16th/30

2012: made playoffs · 98–64. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBryce Harper 92GRick Ankiel 62GRoger Bernadina 37G
LFMichael Morse 67GRoger Bernadina 57GSteve Lombardozzi Jr. 41G
RFJayson Werth 76GBryce Harper 65GMichael Morse 36G
SSIan Desmond 128GCésar Izturis 46GDanny Espinosa 36G
2BDanny Espinosa 126GSteve Lombardozzi Jr. 51GCésar Izturis 2G
3BRyan Zimmerman 145GSteve Lombardozzi Jr. 13GMark DeRosa 11G
1BAdam LaRoche 153GChad Tracy 14GTyler Moore 14G
STARTERSGio Gonzalez 4.8WARStephen Strasburg 4.8WARJordan Zimmermann 3.8WAREdwin Jackson 2.5WARRoss Detwiler 1.1WAR
CKurt Suzuki 117GJesus Flores 80GWilson Ramos 24G
DHMichael Morse 9G
BULLPEN★ Tyler Clippard 32svSean Burnett 31hRyan Mattheus 18hCraig Stammen 10hDrew Storen 10hTom Gorzelanny 9hMichael Gonzalez 7hHenry Alberto Rodriguez 2h
CKurt Suzuki 117 · Jesus Flores 80 · Wilson Ramos 24
1BAdam LaRoche 153 · Chad Tracy 14 · Tyler Moore 14
2BDanny Espinosa 126 · Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 51 · César Izturis 2
3BRyan Zimmerman 145 · Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 13 · Mark DeRosa 11
SSIan Desmond 128 · César Izturis 46 · Danny Espinosa 36
LFMichael Morse 67 · Roger Bernadina 57 · Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 41
CFBryce Harper 92 · Rick Ankiel 62 · Roger Bernadina 37
RFJayson Werth 76 · Bryce Harper 65 · Michael Morse 36
DHMichael Morse 9
SPGio Gonzalez 4.8 · Stephen Strasburg 4.8 · Jordan Zimmermann 3.8 · Edwin Jackson 2.5 · Ross Detwiler 1.1
BP★ Tyler Clippard 32 · Sean Burnett 31 · Ryan Mattheus 18 · Craig Stammen 10 · Drew Storen 10 · Tom Gorzelanny 9 · Michael Gonzalez 7 · Henry Alberto Rodriguez 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Stephen Strasburg 23 pre-arb 284.8 3.0 +9.3
Gio Gonzalez 26 arb 324.8 3.2 +9.1
Bryce Harper 19 pre-arb 1394.4 0.5 +10.8
Ian Desmond 26 arb 1304.2 0.5 +10.4
Ryan Zimmerman 27 FA-elig 1454.0 12.0 -1.6
Jordan Zimmermann 26 arb 323.8 2.3 +7.5
Adam LaRoche 32 FA-elig 1543.4 8.0 +0.8
Danny Espinosa 25 pre-arb 1602.6 0.5 +6.3
Edwin Jackson 28 FA-elig 342.5 11.0 -4.5
Roger Bernadina 28 arb 1291.5 0.5 +3.4
Jayson Werth 33 FA-elig 811.4 13.0 -9.5
Tyler Clippard 27 arb 741.2 1.6 +1.4
Ross Detwiler 26 arb 331.1 0.5 +2.5
Sean Burnett 29 FA-elig 701.0 2.3 +0.2
Drew Storen 24 pre-arb 370.7 0.5 +1.4
Craig Stammen 28 arb 590.7 0.5 +1.4
Tyler Moore 25 – 750.7 0.5 +1.2
Chad Tracy 32 FA-elig 730.6 0.8 +0.8
Michael Gonzalez 34 – 470.6 – –
Michael Morse 30 FA-elig 1020.5 3.2 -1.9
Wilson Ramos 24 pre-arb 250.5 0.5 +0.8
John Lannan 27 arb 60.4 5.0 -3.9
Jhonatan Solano 26 – 120.4 – –
Sandy León 23 – 120.3 0.3 +0.5
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 23 pre-arb 1260.3 0.5 +0.2
Tom Gorzelanny 29 FA-elig 450.2 3.0 -2.4
Zach Duke 29 FA-elig 80.2 0.2 +0.3
Cesar Izturis↔ MIL 32 FA-elig 50.1 0.1 +0.2
Corey Brown 26 pre-arb 190.1 0.5 -0.3
Eury Pérez 22 – 130.1 0.5 -0.3
Christian Garcia 26 pre-arb 130.1 0.5 -0.3
Brett Carroll 29 arb 5-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Kurt Suzuki↔ OAK 28 arb 43-0.1 1.8 -2.0
Rick Ankiel 32 FA-elig 68-0.1 1.2 -1.6
Carlos Maldonado 33 – 4-0.2 – –
Ryan Perry 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Brad Lidge 35 FA-elig 11-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Jesus Flores 27 arb 83-0.3 0.8 -1.6
Ryan Mattheus 28 pre-arb 66-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Chien-Ming Wang 32 FA-elig 10-0.4 4.0 -4.9
Henry Alberto Rodriguez 25 arb 35-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Mark DeRosa 37 FA-elig 48-0.5 0.8 -2.1
Xavier Nady↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 40-1.2 0.5 -3.6

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Gio Gonzalez4.8
Bryce Harper4.4
Edwin Jackson2.5
Tyler Moore0.7
Chad Tracy0.6
Michael Gonzalez0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Livan Hernandez1.7
Jason Marquis1.4
Tommy Milone0.6
Laynce Nix0.5
Todd Coffey0.3
Jonny Gomes0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$87.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jayson Werth338.102$13.0M$16.0M$20.0M$21.0M$21.0M$21.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman276.032$12.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M
Edwin Jackson286.070$11.0MFREE AGENT$2.1M
Adam LaRoche328.000$8.0M$10.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Chien-Ming Wang326.159$4.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Morse307.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel328.033$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Lidge359.043$1.0MFREE AGENT
Mark DeRosa3711.061$800kFREE AGENT
Chad Tracy328.116$750k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Xavier Nady338.059$475kFREE AGENT
Zach Duke296.094$167k$377kFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis3210.074$71kFREE AGENT
Michael Gonzalez349.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
John Lannan274.011$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny294.160$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Burnett295.085$2.3MFREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki284.112$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Flores274.079$850kARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Alberto Rodriguez253.000$491kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mattheus283.123$481kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Gio Gonzalez262.162$3.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Strasburg231.118$3.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Zimmermann262.154$2.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Clippard272.148$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Carroll292.082$580kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Desmond262.027$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Espinosa251.033$506kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Harper190.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Storen241.140$499kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Bernadina282.146$494kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos241.047$491kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler262.002$485kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Stammen281.160$485kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.231.000$481kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Moore250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Perry252.147$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eury Pérez22–$480k
Christian Garcia261.031$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Brown260.023$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León230.000$268kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Maldonado33–—
Jhonatan Solano260.027—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.