OAK⇄WSN

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2014 odds 42% → 37% (-5.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy BurnsOF·24y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#490 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $7M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2014 odds 86% → 89% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerry BlevinsP·30y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.