OAK⇄WSN

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net +0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $13M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2014 odds 33% → 37% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fernando AbadP·28y·L/L

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$1.6M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2014 odds 90% → 89% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John WootenRF·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#594 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.