RRosternomics
𝕏

Nationals WSN

‹ ›

GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.77× league · TAB +0.2
+0.2TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+2.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag24th/30
29%dead money %11th/30
0.500win %15th/30
31.1roster fWAR20th/30
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)13th/30
$55Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFPreston Wilson 124GBrad Wilkerson 92GRyan Church 20G
LFMarlon Byrd 54GRyan Church 51GBrad Wilkerson 38G
RFJose Guillen 140GRyan Church 21GBrad Wilkerson 6G
SSCristian Guzman 142GJamey Carroll 41GDeivi Cruz 24G
2BJose Vidro 79GJunior Spivey 70GJamey Carroll 63G
3BVinny Castilla 138GCarlos Baerga 20GRyan Zimmerman 14G
1BNick Johnson 129GBrad Wilkerson 25GWil Cordero 12G
STARTERSEsteban Loaiza 4.5WARJohn Patterson 4.0WARLivan Hernandez 3.2WARHector Carrasco 1.1WARRyan Drese 0.4WAR
CBrian Schneider 113GGary Bennett 64GKeith Osik 5G
DHWil Cordero 3GMarlon Byrd 2GJose Guillen 2G
BULLPEN★ Chad Cordero 47svGary Majewski 23hLuis Ayala 22hJoey Eischen 8hJason Bergmann 1hJohn Halama 0hJon Rauch 0hTravis Hughes 0h
CBrian Schneider 113 · Gary Bennett 64 · Keith Osik 5
1BNick Johnson 129 · Brad Wilkerson 25 · Wil Cordero 12
2BJose Vidro 79 · Junior Spivey 70 · Jamey Carroll 63
3BVinny Castilla 138 · Carlos Baerga 20 · Ryan Zimmerman 14
SSCristian Guzman 142 · Jamey Carroll 41 · Deivi Cruz 24
LFMarlon Byrd 54 · Ryan Church 51 · Brad Wilkerson 38
CFPreston Wilson 124 · Brad Wilkerson 92 · Ryan Church 20
RFJose Guillen 140 · Ryan Church 21 · Brad Wilkerson 6
DHWil Cordero 3 · Marlon Byrd 2 · Jose Guillen 2
SPEsteban Loaiza 4.5 · John Patterson 4.0 · Livan Hernandez 3.2 · Hector Carrasco 1.1 · Ryan Drese 0.4
BP★ Chad Cordero 47 · Gary Majewski 23 · Luis Ayala 22 · Joey Eischen 8 · Jason Bergmann 1 · John Halama 0 · Jon Rauch 0 · Travis Hughes 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Esteban Loaiza 33 FA-elig 344.5 2.9 +5.7
Nick Johnson 26 arb 1314.2 1.4 +6.4
John Patterson 27 arb 314.0 0.3 +7.3
Jose Guillen 29 FA-elig 1483.7 3.5 +3.5
Livan Hernandez 30 FA-elig 353.2 8.0 -2.0
Brian Schneider 28 arb 1162.5 2.0 +2.8
Brad Wilkerson 28 arb 1482.4 3.0 +1.6
Ryan Church 26 pre-arb 1021.9 0.3 +3.2
Jose Vidro 30 FA-elig 871.2 7.0 -4.8
Hector Carrasco 35 – 641.1 – –
Chad Cordero 23 pre-arb 741.0 0.3 +1.6
Vinny Castilla 37 FA-elig 1421.0 3.0 -1.1
Preston Wilson↔ COL 30 FA-elig 680.9 6.1 -4.4
Ryan Zimmerman 20 – 200.7 – –
Gary Majewski 25 – 790.6 – –
Junior Spivey↔ MIL 30 arb 280.6 0.8 +0.3
Jamey Carroll 31 arb 1130.6 0.3 +0.7
Marlon Byrd↔ PHI 27 – 740.5 – –
Ryan Drese↔ TEX 29 arb 120.4 0.3 +0.5
Luis Ayala 27 pre-arb 680.4 0.4 +0.4
Jason Bergmann 23 – 150.3 – –
Jon Rauch 26 – 150.3 – –
Rick Short 32 – 110.3 – –
Joey Eischen 35 FA-elig 580.2 1.0 -0.6
John Halama↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 100.2 0.2 +0.2
Endy Chavez↔ PHI 27 – 70.1 0.0 +0.2
Mike Stanton↔ BOS 38 FA-elig 300.1 2.0 -1.8
Henry Mateo 28 arb 10.1 0.3 -0.2
Darrell Rasner 24 – 50.1 – –
Sun-Woo Kim↔ COL 27 – 120.0 – –
Matt White 27 – 10.0 – –
C.J. Nitkowski 32 – 70.0 – –
Joe Horgan 28 pre-arb 80.0 0.3 -0.3
Terrmel Sledge 28 pre-arb 200.0 0.3 -0.3
Brendan Harris 24 – 4-0.0 – –
Brandon Watson 23 – 25-0.0 – –
Matt Cepicky 27 – 11-0.0 – –
Kenny Kelly↔ CIN 26 – 17-0.1 – –
Tyrell Godwin 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Keith Osik 36 – 6-0.1 – –
Carlos Baerga 36 – 93-0.1 – –
Tomo Ohka↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 11-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Jeffrey Hammonds 34 – 13-0.2 – –
J.J. Davis 26 arb 14-0.2 0.3 -0.6
Deivi Cruz↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 20-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Zach Day↔ COL 27 arb 12-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Claudio Vargas↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.1 -0.6
T.J. Tucker 26 arb 13-0.3 0.7 -1.2
Antonio Osuna 32 FA-elig 4-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Travis Hughes 27 – 14-0.4 – –
Tony Armas 27 FA-elig 19-0.5 2.3 -3.1
Gary Bennett 33 FA-elig 68-0.5 0.8 -1.7
Tony Blanco 23 pre-arb 56-0.6 0.3 -1.5
Wil Cordero 33 FA-elig 29-0.7 0.6 -2.0
Cristian Guzman 27 FA-elig 142-1.2 4.2 -6.5

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Esteban Loaiza4.5
Jose Guillen3.7
Hector Carrasco1.1
Vinny Castilla1.0
Preston Wilson0.9
Ryan Zimmerman0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Juan Rivera1.4
Scott Downs0.3
Rigo Beltran0.0
Roy Corcoran0.0
Shawn Hill0.0
Francis Beltran-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$55.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Livan Hernandez309.000$8.0M$5.6MFREE AGENT$537k$900k$1.2M
Jose Vidro308.000$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Preston Wilson307.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman276.000$4.2MFREE AGENT$4.2M$4.2M$8.0M$6.8M
Jose Guillen298.000$3.5M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Vinny Castilla3714.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza3310.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Tony Armas276.000$2.3M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Stanton3816.000$2.0M$683kFREE AGENT
Joey Eischen3511.000$1.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Tomo Ohka296.000$917kFREE AGENT
Antonio Osuna3210.000$800kFREE AGENT
Gary Bennett3310.000$750kFREE AGENT
Wil Cordero3313.000$600kFREE AGENT
John Halama337.000$212kFREE AGENT
Deivi Cruz328.000$158kFREE AGENT
Carlos Baerga3615.000—FREE AGENT
Hector Carrasco3511.000—FREE AGENT
Jeffrey Hammonds3412.000—FREE AGENT
C.J. Nitkowski3210.000—FREE AGENT
Keith Osik369.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Brad Wilkerson284.000$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schneider285.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Johnson264.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Spivey304.000$773kARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Tucker265.000$657kFREE AGENT
Jamey Carroll313.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Patterson273.000$322kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Mateo284.000$318kARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Davis263.000$316kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Drese294.000$275kARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day273.000$252kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Endy Chavez274.000$23kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sun-Woo Kim274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Rauch263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Luis Ayala272.000$363kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Cordero232.000$346kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrmel Sledge281.000$345kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Horgan281.000$319kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Church261.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Blanco230.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Claudio Vargas272.000$52kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenny Kelly26–—
Gary Majewski251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Cepicky27–—
Travis Hughes27–—
Matt White272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Watson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Short32–—
Darrell Rasner240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrell Godwin25–—
Jason Bergmann230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Zimmerman200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.