TOR⇄WSN

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2005 odds 12% → 13% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

A.J. WidemanP·20y·R/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#327 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2005 odds 9% → 8% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyrell GodwinPH/PR·25y·L/R

+$9.1M+$9.1M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#24 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.