MIL⇄WSN

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$6.4M net +1.8

received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $23M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2005 odds 18% → 22% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tomo OhkaP·29y·B/R

+$31.5M+$31.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.62/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net −$6.4M net -1.8

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $30M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 3.8 ± 4 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2005 odds 10% → 8% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Junior Spivey2B·30y·R/R

+$11.1M+$11.1M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.39/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.