RRosternomics
𝕏

Nationals WSN

‹ ›

GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.7× league · TAB -5.8
-5.8TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-6.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
55%dead money %29th/30
0.438win %25th/30
24.0roster fWAR27th/30
-11surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$53Mpayroll $M24th/30

Roster

CFMarlon Byrd 57GRyan Church 51GNook Logan 26G
LFAlfonso Soriano 158GLuis Matos 32GMarlon Byrd 3G
RFAustin Kearns 144GJose Guillen 68GMarlon Byrd 18G
SSFelipe López 155GDamian Jackson 16GBrendan Harris 5G
2BJose Vidro 107GBernie Castro 29GDamian Jackson 11G
3BRyan Zimmerman 157GDamian Jackson 6GMelvin Dorta 3G
1BNick Johnson 147GRobert Fick 13GJose Vidro 8G
STARTERSJohn Patterson 1.1WARShawn Hill 0.5WARTony Armas 0.5WARPedro Astacio 0.5WARMichael O'Connor 0.2WAR
CBrian Schneider 123GRobert Fick 26GBrandon Harper 14G
DHMarlon Anderson 3GDaryle Ward 3GMatthew LeCroy 2G
BULLPEN★ Chad Cordero 29svJon Rauch 18hSaul Rivera 9hMicah Bowie 5hFelix Rodriguez 3hRyan Wagner 3hChris Schroder 1hJoey Eischen 0h
CBrian Schneider 123 · Robert Fick 26 · Brandon Harper 14
1BNick Johnson 147 · Robert Fick 13 · Jose Vidro 8
2BJose Vidro 107 · Bernie Castro 29 · Damian Jackson 11
3BRyan Zimmerman 157 · Damian Jackson 6 · Melvin Dorta 3
SSFelipe López 155 · Damian Jackson 16 · Brendan Harris 5
LFAlfonso Soriano 158 · Luis Matos 32 · Marlon Byrd 3
CFMarlon Byrd 57 · Ryan Church 51 · Nook Logan 26
RFAustin Kearns 144 · Jose Guillen 68 · Marlon Byrd 18
DHMarlon Anderson 3 · Daryle Ward 3 · Matthew LeCroy 2
SPJohn Patterson 1.1 · Shawn Hill 0.5 · Tony Armas 0.5 · Pedro Astacio 0.5 · Michael O'Connor 0.2
BP★ Chad Cordero 29 · Jon Rauch 18 · Saul Rivera 9 · Micah Bowie 5 · Felix Rodriguez 3 · Ryan Wagner 3 · Chris Schroder 1 · Joey Eischen 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alfonso Soriano 30 FA-elig 1595.4 10.0 +0.7
Nick Johnson 27 arb 1474.9 3.2 +6.6
Ryan Zimmerman 21 pre-arb 1573.8 0.3 +7.3
Austin Kearns↔ CIN 26 arb 632.0 0.8 +3.3
Ryan Church 27 – 711.9 – –
Livan Hernandez↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 261.6 5.6 -2.4
John Patterson 28 arb 81.1 0.5 +1.8
Mike Stanton↔ SFG 39 FA-elig 560.7 0.7 +0.6
Marlon Anderson↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 1090.6 0.8 +0.5
Felipe Lopez↔ CIN 26 arb 710.6 1.2 -0.0
Pedro Astacio 37 FA-elig 170.5 0.8 +0.3
Nook Logan 26 – 270.5 – –
Tony Armas 28 FA-elig 300.5 2.1 -1.2
Shawn Hill 25 – 60.5 – –
Jon Rauch 27 arb 850.4 0.3 +0.5
Marlon Byrd 28 arb 780.4 0.8 +0.0
Mike Vento 28 – 90.4 – –
Daryle Ward↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 780.3 0.6 +0.1
Brian Schneider 29 FA-elig 1240.3 2.7 -2.1
Brandon Harper 30 – 180.3 – –
Micah Bowie 31 – 150.2 – –
Ramon Ortiz 33 FA-elig 380.2 2.5 -2.1
Zach Day↔ COL 28 arb 50.2 0.4 -0.1
Michael O'Connor 25 – 210.2 – –
Billy Traber 26 – 150.1 – –
Jose Vidro 31 FA-elig 1260.1 7.0 -6.8
Chris Booker↔ KCR 29 – 100.1 – –
George Lombard 30 – 200.1 – –
Alex Escobar 27 – 330.1 – –
Gary Majewski↔ CIN 26 pre-arb 460.1 0.2 -0.1
Bill Bray↔ CIN 23 – 190.1 – –
Chad Cordero 24 arb 680.1 0.5 -0.4
Beltran Perez 24 – 90.1 – –
Ryan Drese 30 arb 20.0 1.9 -1.8
Luis Matos↔ BAL 27 FA-elig 140.0 0.3 -0.3
Saul Rivera 28 – 540.0 – –
Brendan Harris↔ CIN 25 – 17-0.0 – –
Roy Corcoran 26 – 6-0.0 – –
Ryan Wagner 23 – 26-0.0 – –
Brett Campbell 24 – 4-0.0 – –
Royce Clayton↔ CIN 36 FA-elig 87-0.1 0.6 -0.7
Santiago Ramirez 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Wiki Gonzalez 32 FA-elig 12-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Henry Mateo 29 – 22-0.1 – –
Melvin Dorta 24 – 15-0.2 – –
Travis Hughes 28 – 8-0.2 – –
Jason Bergmann 24 pre-arb 29-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Jose Guillen 30 FA-elig 69-0.2 4.0 -4.4
Matthew LeCroy 30 FA-elig 39-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Bernie Castro 26 – 42-0.2 – –
Robert Fick 32 FA-elig 60-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Chris Schroder 27 – 21-0.3 – –
Joey Eischen 36 FA-elig 22-0.4 1.3 -2.1
Kevin Gryboski 32 – 6-0.4 – –
Felix Rodriguez 33 FA-elig 31-0.4 0.6 -1.5
Brandon Watson↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 9-0.5 0.3 -1.2
Damian Jackson 32 FA-elig 67-0.5 0.7 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Alfonso Soriano5.4
Austin Kearns2.0
Marlon Anderson0.6
Felipe Lopez0.6
Pedro Astacio0.5
Nook Logan0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Esteban Loaiza4.5
Brad Wilkerson2.4
Hector Carrasco1.1
Vinny Castilla1.0
Preston Wilson0.9
Junior Spivey0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$53.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Alfonso Soriano307.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Vidro319.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3110.000$5.6MFREE AGENT$537k$900k$1.2M
Jose Guillen309.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Schneider296.000$2.7M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Ramon Ortiz337.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Tony Armas287.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Joey Eischen3612.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Robert Fick328.000$850k$850kFREE AGENT
Matthew LeCroy306.000$850kFREE AGENT
Marlon Anderson328.000$752kFREE AGENT
Pedro Astacio3714.000$750kFREE AGENT
Damian Jackson3210.000$700kFREE AGENT
Mike Stanton3917.000$683kFREE AGENT
Wiki Gonzalez327.000$650kFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3615.000$635kFREE AGENT
Felix Rodriguez3311.000$600kFREE AGENT
Daryle Ward318.000$557kFREE AGENT
Luis Matos276.000$330kFREE AGENT
Micah Bowie317.000—$435kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Nick Johnson275.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Ryan Drese305.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez265.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd284.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Kearns264.000$777kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Cordero243.000$525kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Patterson284.000$450kARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Day284.000$375kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Rauch274.000$335kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Escobar275.000—FREE AGENT
Henry Mateo295.000—FREE AGENT
Kevin Gryboski324.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Traber263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Wagner233.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roy Corcoran263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Ryan Zimmerman211.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bergmann241.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Watson241.000$294kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gary Majewski262.000$249kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Lombard30–—
Brandon Harper30–—
Saul Rivera280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Booker29–—
Travis Hughes28–—
Bernie Castro26–—
Nook Logan262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Church272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Ramirez27–—
Beltran Perez24–—
Shawn Hill252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Vento28–—
Bill Bray230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael O'Connor25–—
Chris Schroder27–—
Brett Campbell24–—
Melvin Dorta24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Nationals 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.