WSN⇄ARI

WSNWSN Omar Minaya net +$20.8M net +4.2

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$23.2M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 5.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John PattersonP·26y·R/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$23.2M 2.4± 4 exp WARrealized 5.3

Prior

#5 overall draft pick → 0.46/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$20.8M net -4.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $13M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy ChoateP·28y·L/L

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#169 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.