RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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GM: Andrew Friedman

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 8 in this regime · payroll 0.67× league · TAB +5.3
+5.3TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-2.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
45%dead money %22nd/30
0.475win %18th/30
34.7roster fWAR13th/30
+26surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$76Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFDesmond Jennings 118GKevin Kiermaier 42GBrandon Guyer 11G
LFMatt Joyce 81GBrandon Guyer 62GBen Zobrist 38G
RFWil Myers 78GKevin Kiermaier 68GBen Zobrist 19G
SSYunel Escobar 136GBen Zobrist 31GNick Franklin 10G
2BBen Zobrist 79GLogan Forsythe 74GSean Rodríguez 23G
3BEvan Longoria 155GSean Rodríguez 9GLogan Forsythe 6G
1BJames Loney 152GSean Rodríguez 18GWil Myers 2G
STARTERSChris Archer 2.9WARAlex Cobb 2.6WARJake Odorizzi 1.8WARDrew Smyly 1.2WARJeremy Hellickson 0.2WAR
CJosé Molina 80GRyan Hanigan 79GCurt Casali 29G
DHDavid DeJesus 58GMatt Joyce 34GSean Rodríguez 22G
BULLPEN★ Jake McGee 19svBrad Boxberger 19hJoel Peralta 18hGrant Balfour 11hJeff Beliveau 6hBrandon Gomes 5hJuan Carlos Oviedo 2hKirby Yates 0h
CJosé Molina 80 · Ryan Hanigan 79 · Curt Casali 29
1BJames Loney 152 · Sean Rodríguez 18 · Wil Myers 2
2BBen Zobrist 79 · Logan Forsythe 74 · Sean Rodríguez 23
3BEvan Longoria 155 · Sean Rodríguez 9 · Logan Forsythe 6
SSYunel Escobar 136 · Ben Zobrist 31 · Nick Franklin 10
LFMatt Joyce 81 · Brandon Guyer 62 · Ben Zobrist 38
CFDesmond Jennings 118 · Kevin Kiermaier 42 · Brandon Guyer 11
RFWil Myers 78 · Kevin Kiermaier 68 · Ben Zobrist 19
DHDavid DeJesus 58 · Matt Joyce 34 · Sean Rodríguez 22
SPChris Archer 2.9 · Alex Cobb 2.6 · Jake Odorizzi 1.8 · Drew Smyly 1.2 · Jeremy Hellickson 0.2
BP★ Jake McGee 19 · Brad Boxberger 19 · Joel Peralta 18 · Grant Balfour 11 · Jeff Beliveau 6 · Brandon Gomes 5 · Juan Carlos Oviedo 2 · Kirby Yates 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ben Zobrist 33 FA-elig 1464.7 7.0 +6.7
Evan Longoria 28 FA-elig 1623.6 7.5 +3.0
David Price↔ DET 28 FA-elig 233.2 9.5 -0.1
Chris Archer 25 pre-arb 322.9 0.5 +7.9
Kevin Kiermaier 24 – 1082.8 0.4 +7.8
Desmond Jennings 27 arb 1232.7 0.5 +7.5
Alex Cobb 26 arb 272.6 0.5 +7.0
Jake McGee 27 arb 732.5 1.4 +5.8
Jake Odorizzi 24 pre-arb 311.8 0.5 +4.7
Brandon Guyer 28 arb 971.7 0.5 +4.6
Matt Joyce 29 FA-elig 1401.5 3.7 +0.6
Ryan Hanigan 33 FA-elig 841.5 2.8 +1.5
Drew Smyly↔ DET 25 pre-arb 71.2 0.1 +3.3
James Loney 30 FA-elig 1550.9 1.0 +1.5
José Molina 39 FA-elig 800.8 1.8 +0.6
Brad Boxberger 26 pre-arb 630.8 0.4 +1.9
David DeJesus 34 FA-elig 830.5 4.2 -2.8
Joel Peralta 38 FA-elig 690.5 3.0 -1.7
Yunel Escobar 31 FA-elig 1370.4 5.0 -3.8
Jeff Beliveau 27 pre-arb 300.4 0.2 +1.0
Alex Colomé 25 pre-arb 50.2 0.0 +0.7
Sean Rodríguez 29 FA-elig 960.2 1.5 -0.8
Jeremy Hellickson 27 arb 130.2 3.6 -3.1
Erik Bedard 35 – 170.1 1.1 -0.9
Cole Figueroa 27 pre-arb 230.0 0.1 -0.0
Nick Franklin↔ SEA 23 pre-arb 110.0 0.2 -0.2
Kirby Yates 27 – 370.0 0.3 -0.3
C.J. Riefenhauser 24 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Matt Moore 25 arb 2-0.0 1.0 -1.1
Ali Solis 26 – 8-0.1 – –
Curt Casali 25 – 30-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Logan Forsythe 27 arb 110-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Nate Karns 26 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Vince Belnome 26 – 4-0.1 – –
Grant Balfour 36 FA-elig 65-0.1 4.0 -4.4
Wil Myers 23 pre-arb 87-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Jerry Sands 26 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Heath Bell 36 FA-elig 13-0.2 9.0 -9.6
Cesár Ramos 30 arb 43-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Juan Carlos Oviedo 32 FA-elig 32-0.3 1.5 -2.2
Brandon Gomes 29 arb 29-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Steve Geltz 26 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Josh Lueke 29 arb 25-0.5 0.5 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Brandon Guyer1.7
Ryan Hanigan1.5
Drew Smyly1.2
Brad Boxberger0.8
Erik Bedard0.1
Cole Figueroa0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Jose Lobatón1.7
Alex Torres1.3
Fernando Rodney1.2
Kelly Johnson1.1
Jamey Wright0.5
Luke Scott0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$76.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Heath Bell368.099$9.0MFREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist336.134$7.0MFREE AGENT
Yunel Escobar316.121$5.0MFREE AGENT
David DeJesus349.146$4.2M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour369.099$4.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Joel Peralta387.132$3.0MFREE AGENT
José Molina3912.026$1.8MFREE AGENT
Juan Carlos Oviedo329.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard3510.146$1.1MFREE AGENT
James Loney307.012$1.0M$8.7MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
David Price284.164$9.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Longoria285.170$7.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce294.123$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson273.045$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan335.077$2.8MFREE AGENT
Sean Rodríguez294.133$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesár Ramos303.003$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jake McGee272.127$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Moore252.017$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Desmond Jennings272.101$517kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Cobb262.061$517kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe272.113$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Gomes292.003$508kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Myers230.104$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lueke290.109$504kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi240.042$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer281.066$501kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Archer250.156$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger260.129$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kiermaier240.000$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Sands261.142$328kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirby Yates270.000$311kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Beliveau270.077$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Franklin230.126$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali250.000$183kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Smyly251.154$130kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Figueroa270.067$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Geltz260.035$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Karns260.015$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Colomé250.102$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.J. Riefenhauser240.101$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ali Solis26–—
Vince Belnome26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.