RRosternomics

Giants SFG

President of baseball ops: Farhan Zaidi · GM: Scott Harris

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.29× league · TAB +17.4
+17.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+21.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-1.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
14%dead money %3rd/30
0.660win %1st/30
54.8roster fWAR2nd/30
+14surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$163Mpayroll $M9th/30

2021: made playoffs · 107–55. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFSteven Duggar 93GAustin Slater 77GMike Yastrzemski 34G
LFAlex Dickerson 82GKris Bryant 48GMike Tauchman 45G
RFMike Yastrzemski 115GLaMonte Wade Jr. 52GKris Bryant 39G
SSBrandon Crawford 135GMauricio Dubón 21GThairo Estrada 19G
2BDonovan Solano 91GTommy La Stella 54GWilmer Flores 30G
3BEvan Longoria 78GWilmer Flores 58GKris Bryant 55G
1BBrandon Belt 93GDarin Ruf 44GWilmer Flores 34G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 5.0WARLogan Webb 4.3WARAnthony DeSclafani 2.8WARAlex Wood 2.3WARJohnny Cueto 1.5WAR
CBuster Posey 106GCurt Casali 64GChadwick Tromp 8G
DHAlex Dickerson 5GWilmer Flores 4GTommy La Stella 2G
BULLPEN Jake McGee 31svTyler Rogers 30hTony Watson 19hDominic Leone 15hJarlín García 11hTyler Chatwood 11hJose Alvarez 8hZack Littell 7h
CBuster Posey 106 · Curt Casali 64 · Chadwick Tromp 8
1BBrandon Belt 93 · Darin Ruf 44 · Wilmer Flores 34
2BDonovan Solano 91 · Tommy La Stella 54 · Wilmer Flores 30
3BEvan Longoria 78 · Wilmer Flores 58 · Kris Bryant 55
SSBrandon Crawford 135 · Mauricio Dubón 21 · Thairo Estrada 19
LFAlex Dickerson 82 · Kris Bryant 48 · Mike Tauchman 45
CFSteven Duggar 93 · Austin Slater 77 · Mike Yastrzemski 34
RFMike Yastrzemski 115 · LaMonte Wade Jr. 52 · Kris Bryant 39
DHAlex Dickerson 5 · Wilmer Flores 4 · Tommy La Stella 2
SPKevin Gausman 5.0 · Logan Webb 4.3 · Anthony DeSclafani 2.8 · Alex Wood 2.3 · Johnny Cueto 1.5
BP Jake McGee 31 · Tyler Rogers 30 · Tony Watson 19 · Dominic Leone 15 · Jarlín García 11 · Tyler Chatwood 11 · Jose Alvarez 8 · Zack Littell 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Crawford 34 FA-elig 1386.2 15.2 +4.9
Buster Posey 34 FA-elig 1135.3 22.2 -4.9
Kevin Gausman 30 FA-elig 345.0 18.9 -2.6
Logan Webb 24 pre-arb 284.3 0.6 +13.5
Brandon Belt 33 FA-elig 973.6 17.2 -5.6
Darin Ruf 34 FA-elig 1172.9 1.3 +8.2
Anthony DeSclafani 31 FA-elig 342.8 6.0 +3.1
Alex Wood 30 FA-elig 262.3 3.0 +4.4
Mike Yastrzemski 30 pre-arb 1392.1 0.6 +6.3
Evan Longoria 35 FA-elig 812.0 18.7 -12.3
LaMonte Wade Jr. 27 1091.9 0.4 +5.7
Wilmer Flores 29 FA-elig 1391.9 3.0 +3.1
Steven Duggar 27 pre-arb 1071.9 0.4 +5.6
Johnny Cueto 35 FA-elig 221.5 21.8 -16.9
Austin Slater 28 arb 1291.5 1.1 +3.6
Donovan Solano 33 FA-elig 1011.4 3.2 +1.3
Tyler Rogers 30 pre-arb 801.3 0.6 +3.5
Thairo Estrada 25 pre-arb 521.2 0.2 +3.6
Jose Alvarez 32 FA-elig 671.1 1.1 +2.6
Jake McGee 34 FA-elig 621.1 2.0 +1.6
Dominic Leone 29 arb 570.9 0.4 +2.5
Tommy La Stella 32 FA-elig 760.6 2.0 +0.0
Tony Watson↔ ANA 36 FA-elig 260.6 0.4 +1.4
Kris Bryant↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 510.5 6.9 -5.3
Jarlín García 28 arb 580.4 0.9 +0.3
Kervin Castro 22 100.4 0.1 +1.1
Curt Casali 32 FA-elig 770.3 1.5 -0.4
Zack Littell 25 arb 630.3 0.6 +0.4
Aaron Sanchez 28 FA-elig 90.3 4.0 -3.0
Camilo Doval 23 290.3 0.2 +0.7
Sam Long 25 120.2 0.2 +0.4
Alex Dickerson 31 FA-elig 1110.2 2.0 -1.4
Conner Menez 26 pre-arb 80.2 0.1 +0.4
Mauricio Dubón 26 pre-arb 740.2 0.3 +0.2
Caleb Baragar 27 pre-arb 250.1 0.3 -0.1
Jay Jackson 33 pre-arb 230.0 0.2 -0.0
Nick Tropeano↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Wandy Peralta↔ NYY 29 arb 100.0 0.2 -0.1
Tyler Beede 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.4
Chadwick Tromp 26 90.0 0.1 -0.1
Matt Wisler↔ TBR 28 FA-elig 210.0 0.5 -0.5
Joey Bart 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Reyes Moronta 28 arb 4-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Skye Bolt↔ OAK 27 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Tyler Chatwood↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.2 -0.4
James Sherfy↔ LAD 29 arb 10-0.1 0.4 -0.6
John Brebbia 31 arb 18-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Jaylin Davis 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Jose Quintana↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 5-0.1 1.4 -1.7
Mike Tauchman↔ NYY 30 pre-arb 64-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Sam Selman↔ ANA 30 7-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Scott Kazmir 37 FA-elig 5-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Jason Vosler 27 41-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Gregory Santos 21 3-0.5 0.0 -1.8

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Buster Posey5.3
Anthony DeSclafani2.8
Alex Wood2.3
LaMonte Wade Jr.1.9
Thairo Estrada1.2
Jose Alvarez1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Drew Smyly0.9
Tyler Anderson0.8
Trevor Cahill0.4
Daniel Robertson0.3
Tyler Heineman0.1
Luis Alexander Basabe-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$163.4M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Buster Posey349.161$22.2MFREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto3513.000$21.8MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman306.151$18.9MFREE AGENT
Evan Longoria3512.170$18.7MFREE AGENT
Brandon Belt339.128$17.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford349.094$15.2MFREE AGENT
Anthony DeSclafani316.062$6.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez287.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Wood307.123$3.0MFREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores297.003$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jake McGee349.127$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella327.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Quintana328.133$1.4MFREE AGENT
Jose Alvarez326.035$1.1MFREE AGENT
Tony Watson369.101$419kFREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood319.039$188kFREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir3711.119$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Kris Bryant295.171$6.9MFREE AGENT
Donovan Solano335.081$3.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Dickerson314.120$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Casali324.151$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Ruf343.138$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarlín García283.114$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Brebbia313.092$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reyes Moronta283.028$695kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler284.042$503kARB 3FREE AGENT
James Sherfy294.000$408kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Leone295.043$380kFREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta293.168$165kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Tropeano304.050$90kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Austin Slater282.147$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Yastrzemski301.128$600kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Rogers301.034$583kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell251.075$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Webb241.044$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Beede281.128$461kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
LaMonte Wade Jr.272.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Duggar271.147$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaylin Davis260.045$347kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón261.040$313kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Baragar271.000$295kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Tauchman302.055$269kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thairo Estrada251.063$230kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Long250.000$227kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Camilo Doval230.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Jackson330.089$184kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vosler270.000$175kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chadwick Tromp261.000$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kervin Castro220.000$83kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Menez260.092$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Selman301.023$55kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Santos210.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Skye Bolt270.018$14kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Bart240.108$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3