RRosternomics

Giants SFG

President of baseball ops: Farhan Zaidi · GM: Scott Harris

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.02× league · TAB +3.1
+3.1TAB — talent above budget
-3.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
0.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
25%dead money %5th/30
0.483win %15th/30
13.9roster fWAR14th/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$121Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFMauricio Dubón 44GMike Yastrzemski 24GSteven Duggar 4G
LFAlex Dickerson 41GDarin Ruf 22GSteven Duggar 11G
RFMike Yastrzemski 31GAustin Slater 9GSteven Duggar 7G
SSBrandon Crawford 53GMauricio Dubón 8GDaniel Robertson 5G
2BDonovan Solano 45GWilmer Flores 14GMauricio Dubón 8G
3BEvan Longoria 52GDonovan Solano 5GWilmer Flores 3G
1BBrandon Belt 47GWilmer Flores 14GPablo Sandoval 8G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 1.6WARDrew Smyly 0.9WARTyler Anderson 0.8WARLogan Webb 0.7WARJohnny Cueto 0.5WAR
CJoey Bart 32GChadwick Tromp 23GTyler Heineman 15G
DHWilmer Flores 22GPablo Sandoval 14GAustin Slater 13G
BULLPEN Tyler Rogers 3svTony Watson 10hJarlín García 6hSam Selman 3hSam Coonrod 3hCaleb Baragar 2hShaun Anderson 2hWandy Peralta 1h
CJoey Bart 32 · Chadwick Tromp 23 · Tyler Heineman 15
1BBrandon Belt 47 · Wilmer Flores 14 · Pablo Sandoval 8
2BDonovan Solano 45 · Wilmer Flores 14 · Mauricio Dubón 8
3BEvan Longoria 52 · Donovan Solano 5 · Wilmer Flores 3
SSBrandon Crawford 53 · Mauricio Dubón 8 · Daniel Robertson 5
LFAlex Dickerson 41 · Darin Ruf 22 · Steven Duggar 11
CFMauricio Dubón 44 · Mike Yastrzemski 24 · Steven Duggar 4
RFMike Yastrzemski 31 · Austin Slater 9 · Steven Duggar 7
DHWilmer Flores 22 · Pablo Sandoval 14 · Austin Slater 13
SPKevin Gausman 1.6 · Drew Smyly 0.9 · Tyler Anderson 0.8 · Logan Webb 0.7 · Johnny Cueto 0.5
BP Tyler Rogers 3 · Tony Watson 10 · Jarlín García 6 · Sam Selman 3 · Sam Coonrod 3 · Caleb Baragar 2 · Shaun Anderson 2 · Wandy Peralta 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Belt 32 FA-elig 511.9 17.2 -3.3
Mike Yastrzemski 29 pre-arb 541.9 0.2 +13.6
Kevin Gausman 29 FA-elig 121.6 9.0 +2.6
Brandon Crawford 33 FA-elig 541.5 15.2 -3.9
Alex Dickerson 30 arb 521.1 0.9 +7.5
Wilmer Flores 28 FA-elig 551.1 3.0 +4.8
Austin Slater 27 pre-arb 311.0 0.2 +6.9
Drew Smyly 31 FA-elig 70.9 4.0 +2.9
Evan Longoria 34 FA-elig 530.9 15.2 -8.4
Donovan Solano 32 FA-elig 540.9 1.4 +5.1
Mauricio Dubón 25 pre-arb 540.8 0.2 +5.6
Tyler Anderson 30 arb 130.8 1.8 +3.9
Logan Webb 23 pre-arb 130.7 0.2 +4.6
Johnny Cueto 34 FA-elig 120.5 21.8 -18.1
Tyler Rogers 29 pre-arb 290.5 0.2 +3.5
Darin Ruf 33 pre-arb 400.5 0.3 +3.3
Trevor Cahill 32 FA-elig 110.4 0.1 +2.9
Jarlín García 27 pre-arb 190.3 0.2 +2.0
Daniel Robertson 26 pre-arb 130.3 0.4 +1.5
Caleb Baragar 26 240.2 0.2 +1.2
Joey Bart 23 330.2 0.1 +1.1
Sam Selman 29 pre-arb 240.2 0.2 +0.9
Chadwick Tromp 25 240.1 0.2 +0.5
Wandy Peralta 28 arb 250.1 0.8 -0.3
Tyler Heineman 29 pre-arb 150.1 0.1 +0.3
Tony Watson 35 FA-elig 210.0 3.0 -2.7
Rico Garcia 26 pre-arb 120.0 0.1 -0.1
Luis Alexander Basabe 23 9-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Rob Brantly 30 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jaylin Davis 25 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Dany Jiménez 26 2-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Sam Coonrod 27 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.2 -0.5
Andrew Suárez 27 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Conner Menez 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Andrew Triggs↔ BOS 31 1-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Joey Rickard 29 arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Justin Smoak↔ MIL 33 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.3 -1.5
Shaun Anderson 25 pre-arb 18-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Dereck Rodríguez 28 2-0.2 0.0 -1.7
Steven Duggar 26 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.1 -2.2
Joe McCarthy 26 4-0.3 0.0 -2.4
Pablo Sandoval↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 33-0.5 0.1 -3.4
Jeff Samardzija 35 FA-elig 4-0.5 19.8 -23.3
Hunter Pence 37 FA-elig 17-0.7 3.0 -8.2
Trevor Gott 27 pre-arb 15-1.1 0.2 -8.5

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Gausman1.6
Wilmer Flores1.1
Drew Smyly0.9
Tyler Anderson0.8
Darin Ruf0.5
Trevor Cahill0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Madison Bumgarner3.7
Will Smith1.3
Sam Dyson1.1
Kevin Pillar0.9
Stephen Vogt0.8
Mark Melancon0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$120.6M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Johnny Cueto3412.000$21.8MFREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija3510.028$19.8MFREE AGENT
Brandon Belt328.128$17.2MFREE AGENT
Brandon Crawford338.094$15.2MFREE AGENT
Evan Longoria3411.170$15.2MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly317.143$4.0MFREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores286.003$3.0MFREE AGENT
Hunter Pence3713.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Tony Watson358.101$3.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Smoak3310.000$333kFREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill3210.098$100kFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval3311.042$97kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kevin Gausman295.151$9.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Anderson304.065$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Solano324.081$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Dickerson303.106$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Rickard293.049$103kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Wandy Peralta282.168$805kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson262.133$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Ruf332.138$296kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Gott272.048$218kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarlín García272.114$218kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Slater271.147$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Yastrzemski290.128$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Webb230.044$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Coonrod270.078$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón250.040$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Rogers290.034$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Baragar260.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chadwick Tromp250.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Selman290.031$184kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Anderson250.138$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Bart230.000$121kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Suárez271.059$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman290.027$106kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Duggar261.069$87kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Garcia260.025$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Alexander Basabe23$65k
Conner Menez250.036$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaylin Davis250.026$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe McCarthy261.019$28kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dany Jiménez260.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Brantly301.171$19kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Triggs312.123$16kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dereck Rodríguez281.085$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Giants 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3