SFG⇄MIN

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$11.2M net +4.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · 4.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2021 odds 93% → 96% (+2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

LaMonte Wade1B/OF·27y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

#260 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$11.2M net -4.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2021 odds 8% → 5% (-2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shaun AndersonP·26y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#88 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.