SFG⇄NYM

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2021 odds 96% → 96% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Will Toffey3B·26y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#111 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2021 odds 26% → 26% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony BandaP·27y·L/L

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#335 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.