ATL⇄SEA

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$3.2M net +0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2019 odds 33% → 33% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony SwarzakP·33y·R/R

−$2.1M−$2.1M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$3.2M net -0.1

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse BiddleP·27y·L/L

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#27 overall draft pick → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Arodys VizcaínoP·28y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.