SEA⇄WSN

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.5 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron FletcherP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#431 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Elvis AlvaradoP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Taylor GuilbeauP·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#314 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2019 odds 89% → 88% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roenis ElíasP·30y·L/L

+$5.2M+$5.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.77 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Hunter StricklandP·30y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.54 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.