LAD⇄SEA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2019 odds 99% → 99% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kristopher NegrónOF·33y·R/R

+$0.6M−$0.1M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.0M net -0.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $13M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Daniel Castro2B/SS·26y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.38/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.