SEA⇄WSN

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$3.2M net +0.7

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2019 odds 1% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin AdamsP·28y·R/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#267 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$3.2M net -0.7

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2019 odds 90% → 88% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nick WellsP·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.