RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jack Zduriencik

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.11× league · TAB -0.7
-0.7TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+1.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-6.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
42%dead money %16th/30
0.525win %14th/30
34.8roster fWAR12th/30
-20surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$101Mpayroll $M11th/30

Roster

CFFranklin Gutierrez 153GEndy Chavez 8GRyan Langerhans 4G
LFEndy Chavez 40GMichael Saunders 39GRyan Langerhans 30G
RFIchiro Suzuki 145GBill Hall 15GRyan Langerhans 5G
SSJack Wilson 105GJosh Wilson 55GJack Hannahan 2G
2BJose Lopez 141GRonny Cedeno 13GMatt Tuiasosopo 6G
3BAdrian Beltré 111GJack Hannahan 84GBill Hall 69G
1BRussell Branyan 116GJack Hannahan 18GMike Carp 16G
STARTERSFélix Hernández 6.9WARErik Bedard 2.0WARRyan Rowland-Smith 1.7WARJason Vargas 0.5WARDoug Fister 0.3WAR
CRob Johnson 80GKenji Johjima 70GAdam Moore 6G
DHKen Griffey Jr. 94GMike Sweeney 57GMichael Saunders 4G
BULLPEN★ David Aardsma 38svMark Lowe 26hSean White 15hMiguel Batista 14hShawn Kelley 9hRoy Corcoran 2hRandy Messenger 1hDenny Stark 0h
CRob Johnson 80 · Kenji Johjima 70 · Adam Moore 6
1BRussell Branyan 116 · Jack Hannahan 18 · Mike Carp 16
2BJose Lopez 141 · Ronny Cedeno 13 · Matt Tuiasosopo 6
3BAdrian Beltré 111 · Jack Hannahan 84 · Bill Hall 69
SSJack Wilson 105 · Josh Wilson 55 · Jack Hannahan 2
LFEndy Chavez 40 · Michael Saunders 39 · Ryan Langerhans 30
CFFranklin Gutierrez 153 · Endy Chavez 8 · Ryan Langerhans 4
RFIchiro Suzuki 145 · Bill Hall 15 · Ryan Langerhans 5
DHKen Griffey Jr. 94 · Mike Sweeney 57 · Michael Saunders 4
SPFélix Hernández 6.9 · Erik Bedard 2.0 · Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.7 · Jason Vargas 0.5 · Doug Fister 0.3
BP★ David Aardsma 38 · Mark Lowe 26 · Sean White 15 · Miguel Batista 14 · Shawn Kelley 9 · Roy Corcoran 2 · Randy Messenger 1 · Denny Stark 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Félix Hernández 23 arb 346.9 3.8 +12.6
Franklin Gutierrez 26 arb 1536.1 0.5 +14.1
Ichiro Suzuki 35 FA-elig 1465.5 18.0 -4.9
Russell Branyan 33 FA-elig 1162.7 1.4 +5.1
Jarrod Washburn↔ DET 34 FA-elig 202.7 7.0 -0.6
Adrian Beltré 30 FA-elig 1112.2 13.4 -8.2
David Aardsma 27 arb 732.0 0.4 +4.4
Erik Bedard 30 FA-elig 152.0 7.8 -3.0
Jose Lopez 25 arb 1531.8 2.2 +2.0
Ryan Rowland-Smith 26 pre-arb 151.7 0.4 +3.7
Mark Lowe 26 arb 751.2 0.4 +2.5
Sean White 28 – 520.7 – –
Ryan Langerhans 29 – 380.7 – –
Endy Chavez 31 FA-elig 540.6 2.0 -0.5
Jack Hannahan↔ OAK 29 arb 510.6 0.2 +1.2
Mike Carp 23 – 210.6 0.4 +0.9
Jason Vargas 26 arb 230.5 0.4 +0.8
Josh Wilson↔ ARI 28 – 450.4 – –
Ian Snell↔ PIT 27 arb 120.3 1.4 -0.6
Doug Fister 25 – 110.3 – –
Brandon Morrow 24 pre-arb 260.3 0.4 +0.2
Wladimir Balentien↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 560.2 0.2 +0.3
Mike Sweeney 35 FA-elig 740.2 0.5 -0.0
Jack Wilson↔ PIT 31 FA-elig 310.2 2.2 -1.7
Shawn Kelley 25 pre-arb 410.2 0.4 +0.0
Matt Tuiasosopo 23 pre-arb 70.1 0.4 -0.1
Miguel Batista 38 FA-elig 560.1 9.5 -9.3
Ken Griffey Jr. 39 FA-elig 1170.1 2.0 -1.8
Chris Jakubauskas 30 pre-arb 350.1 0.4 -0.2
Guillermo Quiroz 27 – 40.0 – –
Kenji Johjima 33 arb 71-0.1 7.7 -7.8
Carlos Silva 30 FA-elig 8-0.1 12.2 -12.4
Randy Messenger 27 – 12-0.1 – –
Adam Moore 25 – 6-0.1 – –
Chris Shelton 29 – 9-0.1 – –
Michael Saunders 22 – 46-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Chris Woodward↔ BOS 33 – 20-0.2 – –
Denny Stark 34 – 9-0.2 – –
Luke French↔ DET 23 – 8-0.2 – –
Bill Hall↔ MIL 29 FA-elig 34-0.4 2.1 -3.0
Roy Corcoran 29 FA-elig 16-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Jamie Burke↔ WSN 37 – 13-0.4 – –
Garrett Olson 25 pre-arb 31-0.7 0.4 -2.1
Yuniesky Betancourt↔ KCR 27 arb 63-0.8 1.1 -3.0
Ronny Cedeno↔ PIT 26 arb 59-0.9 0.5 -2.5
Rob Johnson 26 pre-arb 80-1.4 0.4 -3.8

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Franklin Gutierrez6.1
Russell Branyan2.7
David Aardsma2.0
Sean White0.7
Ryan Langerhans0.7
Endy Chavez0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Raul Ibanez2.9
Sean Green0.8
Arthur Rhodes0.6
Cesar Jimenez0.6
J.J. Putz0.5
Willie Bloomquist0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$101.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Ichiro Suzuki358.000$18.0M$18.0M$18.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Adrian Beltré3011.000$13.4MFREE AGENT
Carlos Silva307.000$12.2MFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista3817.000$9.5MFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard307.000$7.8MFREE AGENT$667k
Jarrod Washburn3411.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Jack Wilson318.000$2.2M$5.0M$3.9MFREE AGENT
Bill Hall297.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Endy Chavez318.000$2.0MFREE AGENT$461k$333k
Ken Griffey Jr.3920.000$2.0M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Russell Branyan3311.000$1.4M$784kFREE AGENT
Mike Sweeney3514.000$500k$348kFREE AGENT
Roy Corcoran296.000$413kFREE AGENT
Denny Stark3410.000—FREE AGENT
Chris Woodward3310.000—FREE AGENT
Jamie Burke378.000—FREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans297.000—$525k$525kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kenji Johjima333.000$7.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Hernández234.000$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Lopez255.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Ian Snell275.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Yuniesky Betancourt274.000$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno264.000$462kARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez264.000$455kARB 3FREE AGENT
David Aardsma275.000$419kFREE AGENT
Mark Lowe263.000$418kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vargas264.000$405kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan293.000$203kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Wilson284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Quiroz275.000—FREE AGENT
Chris Shelton295.000—FREE AGENT
Randy Messenger274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Brandon Morrow242.000$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Rowland-Smith262.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Olson252.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Carp230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Saunders220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tuiasosopo231.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Johnson262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Jakubauskas300.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wladimir Balentien242.000$236kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Moore250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke French23–—
Doug Fister250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean White282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.