WSN⇄SEA

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$14.4M net +3.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$21.6M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2009 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Morse1B/OF·27y·R/R

+$9.5M+$9.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$21.6M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 4.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$14.4M net -3.9

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2009 odds 17% → 18% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan LangerhansOF·29y·L/L

+$5.6M+$5.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.