SEA⇄PHI

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net +$62.4M net +5.1

received +$61.6M+$41.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$55.2M realized received 5.0 ± 3 expected · 4.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2010 odds 0% → 1% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff LeeP·31y·L/L

+$61.4M+$41.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$55.2M 5.0± 3 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net −$62.4M net -5.1

received +$19.2M+$19.2M ± $54M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 6.4 ± 7 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2010 odds 62% → 39% (-23.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phillippe AumontP·21y·L/R

+$15.0M+$15.0M± $44M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 3.9± 6 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#11 overall draft pick → 0.71/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tyson GilliesCF·21y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#741 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

J. C. RamírezP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.