RRosternomics
𝕏

Twins MIN

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Jeremy Zoll

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB +3.5
+3.5TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-6.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-6.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
22%dead money %7th/30
0.432win %27th/30
32.1roster fWAR18th/30
+31surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$98Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFByron Buxton 118GJames Outman 37GDaShawn Keirsey Jr. 16G
LFHarrison Bader 70GAlan Roden 41GAustin Martin 37G
RFMatt Wallner 85GTrevor Larnach 44GDaShawn Keirsey Jr. 31G
SSBrooks Lee 77GRyan Fitzgerald 9GWilli Castro 5G
2BKody Clemens 51GLuke Keaschall 41GBrooks Lee 37G
3BRoyce Lewis 99GBrooks Lee 43GJonah Bride 23G
1BKody Clemens 58GEdouard Julien 26GJonah Bride 9G
STARTERSJoe Ryan 3.1WARPablo López 1.8WARZebby Matthews 1.4WARSimeon Woods Richardson 1.2WARBailey Ober 1.2WAR
CRyan Jeffers 88GChristian Vázquez 64GJhonny Pereda 26G
DHTrevor Larnach 81GRyan Jeffers 29GMatt Wallner 15G
BULLPEN★ Justin Topa 4svCole Sands 13hKody Funderburk 7hGénesis Cabrera 3hMichael Tonkin 2hTravis Adams 2hPierson Ohl 2hBrooks Kriske 0h
CRyan Jeffers 88 · Christian Vázquez 64 · Jhonny Pereda 26
1BKody Clemens 58 · Edouard Julien 26 · Jonah Bride 9
2BKody Clemens 51 · Luke Keaschall 41 · Brooks Lee 37
3BRoyce Lewis 99 · Brooks Lee 43 · Jonah Bride 23
SSBrooks Lee 77 · Ryan Fitzgerald 9 · Willi Castro 5
LFHarrison Bader 70 · Alan Roden 41 · Austin Martin 37
CFByron Buxton 118 · James Outman 37 · DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 16
RFMatt Wallner 85 · Trevor Larnach 44 · DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 31
DHTrevor Larnach 81 · Ryan Jeffers 29 · Matt Wallner 15
SPJoe Ryan 3.1 · Pablo López 1.8 · Zebby Matthews 1.4 · Simeon Woods Richardson 1.2 · Bailey Ober 1.2
BP★ Justin Topa 4 · Cole Sands 13 · Kody Funderburk 7 · Génesis Cabrera 3 · Michael Tonkin 2 · Travis Adams 2 · Pierson Ohl 2 · Brooks Kriske 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Byron Buxton 31 FA-elig 1265.0 16.1 +3.7
Joe Ryan 29 arb 313.1 3.0 +9.4
Ryan Jeffers 28 arb 1192.1 4.5 +3.7
Harrison Bader↔ PHI 31 – 962.0 2.3 +5.6
Pablo López 29 FA-elig 141.8 21.8 -14.6
Luke Keaschall 22 – 491.6 0.2 +5.9
Griffin Jax↔ TBR 30 – 501.5 1.1 +4.8
Kody Clemens↔ PHI 29 pre-arb 1121.4 0.6 +5.0
Zebby Matthews 25 pre-arb 161.4 0.5 +4.8
Matt Wallner 27 pre-arb 1041.4 0.8 +4.6
Jhoan Duran↔ PHI 27 – 491.2 1.9 +3.0
Chris Paddack↔ DET 29 – 211.2 3.7 +1.0
Bailey Ober 29 arb 271.2 3.5 +1.1
Simeon Woods Richardson 24 – 231.2 0.7 +3.9
Willi Castro↔ CHC 28 – 861.1 3.1 +1.2
Carlos Correa↔ HOU 30 – 931.1 5.4 -1.3
Louis Varland↔ TOR 27 – 511.0 – –
Royce Lewis 26 pre-arb 1061.0 1.6 +2.3
Danny Coulombe↔ TEX 35 – 401.0 1.5 +2.4
Austin Martin 26 pre-arb 501.0 0.2 +3.6
Justin Topa 34 arb 540.9 1.2 +2.4
Cole Sands 27 pre-arb 690.8 0.8 +2.4
Ty France↔ TOR 30 – 1010.7 0.5 +2.1
Brock Stewart↔ LAD 33 – 390.6 0.5 +2.0
Kody Funderburk 28 pre-arb 390.4 0.4 +1.3
Ryan Fitzgerald 31 – 240.3 0.3 +1.0
David Festa 25 pre-arb 110.3 0.5 +0.8
Brooks Lee 24 pre-arb 1390.3 0.8 +0.5
Cody Laweryson 27 – 50.3 0.1 +1.2
Jhonny Pereda↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 110.3 0.1 +1.1
Mick Abel↔ PHI 23 – 40.3 0.1 +1.1
Christian Vázquez 34 FA-elig 650.3 10.0 -8.9
Taj Bradley↔ TBR 24 pre-arb 60.3 0.1 +0.9
Trevor Larnach 28 arb 1420.2 2.1 -1.2
Darren McCaughan 29 pre-arb 30.1 0.3 +0.3
Scott Blewett↔ ATL 29 – 20.1 0.0 +0.4
Pierson Ohl 25 – 140.1 0.2 +0.3
José Ureña↔ ANA 33 – 40.1 0.0 +0.3
Brooks Kriske↔ CHC 31 pre-arb 120.0 0.1 -0.0
Randy Dobnak 30 – 1-0.1 3.0 -3.2
Michael Tonkin 35 arb 21-0.1 0.8 -1.2
Erasmo Ramírez 35 FA-elig 9-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Jorge Alcala↔ BOS 29 – 22-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Anthony Misiewicz 30 arb 5-0.2 0.3 -1.1
Alan Roden↔ TOR 25 – 12-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Jonah Bride↔ MIA 29 pre-arb 33-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Thomas Hatch↔ KCR 30 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Joey Wentz↔ ATL 27 – 6-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Travis Adams 25 – 18-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Noah Davis↔ LAD 28 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.1 -1.4
James Outman↔ LAD 28 pre-arb 37-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Jose F Miranda 27 – 12-0.4 – –
Carson McCusker 27 – 16-0.4 0.1 -1.8
Génesis Cabrera↔ CHC 28 arb 16-0.6 0.1 -2.5
Mickey Gasper 29 pre-arb 45-0.7 0.4 -3.2
Edouard Julien 26 pre-arb 64-0.8 0.4 -3.5
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 28 – 74-0.9 – –

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Harrison Bader2.0
Luke Keaschall1.6
Kody Clemens1.4
Danny Coulombe1.0
Ty France0.7
Ryan Fitzgerald0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Carlos Santana2.9
Max Kepler0.9
Kyle Farmer0.5
Josh Staumont0.2
Josh Winder0.2
Caleb Thielbar0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$97.5M
2026 guaranteed
$58.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Pablo López296.093$21.8M$21.8M$21.8MFREE AGENT
Byron Buxton318.160$16.1M$15.1M$15.1M$15.1MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez3410.031$10.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Correa309.119$5.4M$21.5M$20.5M$20.0M$25.0MVEST$20.0MVEST$15.0MVEST
Chris Paddack296.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Harrison Bader317.030$2.3MFREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe356.008$1.5MFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramírez359.003$126kFREE AGENT
José Ureña338.045$49kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Ryan Jeffers284.089$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Ober293.093$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willi Castro285.017$3.1MFREE AGENT
Joe Ryan293.033$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Dobnak304.038$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Larnach283.014$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhoan Duran273.000$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Topa344.044$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax303.091$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tonkin354.074$763kARB 3FREE AGENT
Simeon Woods Richardson243.000$687kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stewart333.093$539kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty France305.089$500kFREE AGENT
Anthony Misiewicz303.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala294.165$219kARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera285.011$139kFREE AGENT
Louis Varland273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Royce Lewis262.142$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sands272.017$778kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wallner271.043$771kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Lee240.089$764kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Clemens291.134$609kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zebby Matthews250.048$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Festa250.095$527kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Gasper290.049$410kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Funderburk281.023$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edouard Julien261.083$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren McCaughan290.063$294kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Adams250.000$270kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Fitzgerald31–$266k
Austin Martin260.154$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Keaschall220.000$237kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonah Bride291.137$234kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Hatch302.032$209kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pierson Ohl250.000$204kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Outman281.095$154kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson McCusker27–$143k
Brooks Kriske310.121$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taj Bradley241.114$114kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonny Pereda290.052$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Roden250.000$72kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Laweryson270.000$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wentz271.166$68kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mick Abel230.000$66kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noah Davis280.129$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Blewett290.102$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose F Miranda272.118—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.28–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.