SFG⇄MIN

SFGSFG Buster Posey net +$4.0M net +1.1

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 5.1 ± 3 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Daniel SusacC·25y·R/R

+$17.0M+$17.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 5.1± 3 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.57/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$4.0M net -1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Miguel CaraballoC·17y·S/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.