RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.85× league · TAB +8.6
+8.6TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+2.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-2.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
24%dead money %8th/30
0.506win %17th/30
40.8roster fWAR9th/30
+33surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$137Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFByron Buxton 94GAustin Martin 40GWilli Castro 30G
LFManuel Margot 65GTrevor Larnach 52GAustin Martin 40G
RFMax Kepler 103GManuel Margot 44GMatt Wallner 34G
SSCarlos Correa 84GWilli Castro 56GBrooks Lee 27G
2BEdouard Julien 90GKyle Farmer 71GWilli Castro 40G
3BJose Miranda 78GRoyce Lewis 51GKyle Farmer 29G
1BCarlos Santana 146GJose Miranda 13GAlex Kirilloff 12G
STARTERSPablo López 3.2WARJoe Ryan 3.1WARBailey Ober 3.0WARSimeon Woods Richardson 1.8WARDavid Festa 1.1WAR
CChristian Vázquez 86GRyan Jeffers 86GJair Camargo 2G
DHTrevor Larnach 51GRyan Jeffers 34GRoyce Lewis 28G
BULLPEN★ Jhoan Duran 23svGriffin Jax 24hJorge Alcala 16hCaleb Thielbar 10hSteven Okert 7hTrevor Richards 7hCole Sands 5hMichael Tonkin 1h
CChristian Vázquez 86 · Ryan Jeffers 86 · Jair Camargo 2
1BCarlos Santana 146 · Jose Miranda 13 · Alex Kirilloff 12
2BEdouard Julien 90 · Kyle Farmer 71 · Willi Castro 40
3BJose Miranda 78 · Royce Lewis 51 · Kyle Farmer 29
SSCarlos Correa 84 · Willi Castro 56 · Brooks Lee 27
LFManuel Margot 65 · Trevor Larnach 52 · Austin Martin 40
CFByron Buxton 94 · Austin Martin 40 · Willi Castro 30
RFMax Kepler 103 · Manuel Margot 44 · Matt Wallner 34
DHTrevor Larnach 51 · Ryan Jeffers 34 · Royce Lewis 28
SPPablo López 3.2 · Joe Ryan 3.1 · Bailey Ober 3.0 · Simeon Woods Richardson 1.8 · David Festa 1.1
BP★ Jhoan Duran 23 · Griffin Jax 24 · Jorge Alcala 16 · Caleb Thielbar 10 · Steven Okert 7 · Trevor Richards 7 · Cole Sands 5 · Michael Tonkin 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Correa 29 FA-elig 864.2 33.3 -15.7
Byron Buxton 30 FA-elig 1023.7 15.1 +0.2
Pablo López 28 FA-elig 323.2 8.2 +5.2
Joe Ryan 28 arb 233.1 0.8 +12.3
Bailey Ober 28 arb 313.0 0.8 +11.6
Willi Castro 27 arb 1582.9 3.3 +8.9
Carlos Santana 38 FA-elig 1502.9 5.2 +6.9
Griffin Jax 29 arb 722.6 0.8 +10.1
Matt Wallner 26 pre-arb 752.1 0.7 +7.8
Simeon Woods Richardson 23 pre-arb 281.8 0.7 +6.9
Ryan Jeffers 27 arb 1221.6 2.4 +4.0
Cole Sands 26 pre-arb 621.5 0.7 +5.6
Trevor Larnach 27 arb 1121.4 0.7 +5.3
Jhoan Duran 26 pre-arb 581.2 0.7 +4.2
Royce Lewis 25 pre-arb 821.1 0.7 +4.0
David Festa 24 – 141.1 0.3 +4.1
Chris Paddack 28 arb 171.1 2.5 +1.9
Jose Miranda 26 pre-arb 1211.0 0.7 +3.6
Max Kepler 31 FA-elig 1050.9 10.0 -6.1
Christian Vázquez 33 FA-elig 930.7 10.0 -7.0
Kyle Farmer 33 FA-elig 1070.5 6.3 -4.1
Michael Tonkin↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 130.4 0.2 +1.3
Jorge Alcala 28 arb 540.3 0.8 +0.5
Josh Staumont 30 arb 250.2 0.9 -0.0
Josh Winder 27 pre-arb 40.2 0.8 +0.1
Caleb Thielbar 37 FA-elig 590.2 3.2 -2.4
Diego Castillo 26 arb 40.1 0.2 +0.5
Brock Stewart 32 FA-elig 160.1 0.9 -0.5
Ronny Henriquez 24 pre-arb 160.1 0.7 -0.4
Michael Helman 28 – 90.1 0.1 +0.3
Justin Topa 33 arb 30.1 1.2 -1.0
Scott Blewett 28 pre-arb 120.1 0.2 +0.1
Diego Castillo 30 arb 70.0 0.2 -0.0
Caleb Boushley 30 pre-arb 20.0 0.7 -0.6
Trevor Richards↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 100.0 0.4 -0.3
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 27 – 6-0.0 – –
Edouard Julien 25 pre-arb 94-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Brent Headrick 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Randy Dobnak 29 arb 5-0.0 2.2 -2.4
Daniel Duarte 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Kody Funderburk 27 pre-arb 27-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Jair Camargo 24 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Matt Bowman↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Zebby Matthews 24 – 9-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Manuel Margot 29 FA-elig 129-0.2 10.0 -10.9
Austin Martin 25 pre-arb 93-0.2 0.7 -1.7
Cole Irvin↔ BAL 30 arb 4-0.2 0.3 -1.2
Steven Okert 32 FA-elig 44-0.2 1.1 -2.1
Jay Jackson 36 FA-elig 20-0.3 1.3 -2.4
Brooks Lee 23 – 50-0.3 0.4 -1.6
Alex Kirilloff 26 arb 57-0.3 1.4 -2.8
Louis Varland 26 pre-arb 16-0.4 0.7 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Santana2.9
David Festa1.1
Michael Tonkin0.4
Josh Staumont0.2
Diego Castillo0.1
Ronny Henriquez0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Sonny Gray5.4
Michael A. Taylor1.9
Kenta Maeda1.6
Jorge Polanco1.3
Emilio Pagán1.2
Donovan Solano1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$137.0M
2025 guaranteed
$46.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Carlos Correa298.119$33.3M$8.4M$21.5M$20.5M$20.0M$25.0MVEST$20.0MVEST
Byron Buxton307.160$15.1M$16.1M$15.1M$15.1M$15.1MFREE AGENT
Max Kepler317.152$10.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Manuel Margot297.012$10.0MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez339.031$10.0MFREE AGENT
Pablo López285.093$8.2M$21.8M$21.8M$21.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana3813.115$5.2MFREE AGENT
Jay Jackson369.000$1.3MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Kyle Farmer335.129$6.3MFREE AGENT
Willi Castro274.017$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar375.131$3.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Paddack285.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Jeffers273.089$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Dobnak293.038$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Topa333.044$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Okert323.109$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Staumont305.000$950kFREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala284.014$790kARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards315.084$391kFREE AGENT
Cole Irvin303.083$276kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tonkin343.074$228kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman334.043$185kARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo304.150$151kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Alex Kirilloff262.141$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stewart322.093$900kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Ober282.093$762kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax292.091$762kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ryan282.033$759kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winder271.065$752kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sands261.017$749kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhoan Duran262.000$747kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edouard Julien250.135$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Royce Lewis251.142$746kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wallner260.111$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Varland262.000$745kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Henriquez240.061$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Headrick260.066$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kody Funderburk270.035$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jair Camargo240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Larnach272.101$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Duarte271.087$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Simeon Woods Richardson232.000$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Boushley300.003$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Martin250.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Miranda261.118$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Lee230.000$350kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Festa240.000$306kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zebby Matthews240.000$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Blewett280.043$159kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo26–$151k
Michael Helman280.000$52kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.