RRosternomics

Brewers MIL

GM: Douglas Melvin

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.96× league · TAB +8.3
+8.3TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+1.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
30%dead money %13th/30
0.512win %15th/30
42.1roster fWAR8th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$96Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFCarlos Gómez 128GNyjer Morgan 53GNorichika Aoki 19G
LFRyan Braun 151GNyjer Morgan 19GNorichika Aoki 13G
RFNorichika Aoki 107GCorey Hart 53GNyjer Morgan 27G
SSJean Segura 44GÁlex González 24GEdwin Maysonet 18G
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 152GCody Ransom 6GTaylor Green 4G
3BAramis Ramirez 143GTaylor Green 13GJeff Bianchi 6G
1BCorey Hart 103GTravis Ishikawa 43GMat Gamel 20G
STARTERSMarco Estrada 2.8WARMike Fiers 2.5WARYovani Gallardo 2.2WARShaun Marcum 1.2WARWily Peralta 0.7WAR
CJonathan Lucroy 88GMartín Maldonado 69GYorvit Torrealba 60G
DHAramis Ramirez 3GRyan Braun 2GRickie Weeks Jr. 2G
BULLPEN John Axford 35svFrancisco Rodríguez 32hJim Henderson 14hJose Veras 10hManny Parra 9hKameron Loe 7hLivan Hernandez 2hTim Dillard 1h
CJonathan Lucroy 88 · Martín Maldonado 69 · Yorvit Torrealba 60
1BCorey Hart 103 · Travis Ishikawa 43 · Mat Gamel 20
2BRickie Weeks Jr. 152 · Cody Ransom 6 · Taylor Green 4
3BAramis Ramirez 143 · Taylor Green 13 · Jeff Bianchi 6
SSJean Segura 44 · Álex González 24 · Edwin Maysonet 18
LFRyan Braun 151 · Nyjer Morgan 19 · Norichika Aoki 13
CFCarlos Gómez 128 · Nyjer Morgan 53 · Norichika Aoki 19
RFNorichika Aoki 107 · Corey Hart 53 · Nyjer Morgan 27
DHAramis Ramirez 3 · Ryan Braun 2 · Rickie Weeks Jr. 2
SPMarco Estrada 2.8 · Mike Fiers 2.5 · Yovani Gallardo 2.2 · Shaun Marcum 1.2 · Wily Peralta 0.7
BP John Axford 35 · Francisco Rodríguez 32 · Jim Henderson 14 · Jose Veras 10 · Manny Parra 9 · Kameron Loe 7 · Livan Hernandez 2 · Tim Dillard 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Braun 28 arb 1546.8 6.0 +11.5
Jonathan Lucroy 26 pre-arb 965.6 0.5 +14.0
Aramis Ramirez 34 FA-elig 1495.4 6.0 +8.0
Zack Greinke↔ ANA 28 FA-elig 243.7 8.8 +0.7
Marco Estrada 28 arb 292.8 0.5 +6.7
Carlos Gómez 26 arb 1372.6 2.0 +4.6
Mike Fiers 27 232.5
Norichika Aoki 30 pre-arb 1512.4 1.0 +5.3
Corey Hart 30 FA-elig 1492.2 9.0 -3.3
Yovani Gallardo 26 arb 332.2 5.5 +0.1
Martín Maldonado 25 pre-arb 782.1 0.5 +4.9
Rickie Weeks Jr. 29 FA-elig 1571.6 10.0 -6.0
Shaun Marcum 30 FA-elig 221.2 7.7 -4.7
Jim Henderson 29 360.8
Wily Peralta 23 60.7 0.5 +1.4
Mark Rogers 26 pre-arb 80.6 0.5 +1.1
George Kottaras↔ OAK 29 arb 580.6 0.5 +1.0
Randy Wolf↔ BAL 35 FA-elig 260.6 8.0 -6.5
Jose Veras 31 FA-elig 720.3 2.0 -1.2
Manny Parra 29 arb 620.3 1.2 -0.4
Álex González 35 FA-elig 240.3 4.2 -3.5
Logan Schafer 25 pre-arb 160.3 0.5 +0.2
Francisco Rodríguez 30 FA-elig 780.3 8.0 -7.4
Vinnie Chulk 33 arb 70.1 0.9 -0.6
Travis Ishikawa 28 FA-elig 940.1 0.5 -0.2
Cody Ransom↔ ARI 36 640.1 0.3 -0.0
Brandon Kintzler 27 pre-arb 140.1 0.5 -0.3
Tim Dillard 28 arb 340.0 0.5 -0.4
Mat Gamel 26 arb 210.0 0.5 -0.4
Jeff Bianchi 25 pre-arb 33-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Edwin Maysonet 30 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Eric Farris 26 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.5 -0.7
John Axford 29 arb 75-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Yorvit Torrealba↔ TEX 33 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Josh Stinson 24 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Mike McClendon 27 9-0.1
Kameron Loe 30 FA-elig 70-0.2 2.2 -2.6
Chris Narveson 30 FA-elig 2-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Jean Segura↔ ANA 22 44-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Taylor Green 25 pre-arb 58-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Juan Pablo Perez 33 10-0.3
Nyjer Morgan 31 arb 122-0.4 2.4 -3.3
Tyler Thornburg 23 8-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Cesar Izturis↔ WSN 32 FA-elig 57-0.5 0.8 -2.1
Brooks Conrad↔ TBR 32 25-0.5
Livan Hernandez↔ ATL 37 FA-elig 26-0.6 0.4 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Aramis Ramirez5.4
Norichika Aoki2.4
Jim Henderson0.8
Wily Peralta0.7
Mark Rogers0.6
Jose Veras0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Prince Fielder4.7
LaTroy Hawkins0.7
Jerry Hairston Jr.0.7
Craig Counsell0.4
Takashi Saito0.2
Mark Kotsay0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$96.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Rickie Weeks Jr.299.000$10.0M$10.0M$11.0MFREE AGENT
Corey Hart306.038$9.0MFREE AGENT
Zack Greinke287.057$8.8MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez308.150$8.0M$655k$3.2M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Randy Wolf3512.115$8.0MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3412.111$6.0M$10.0M$16.0M$8.3MFREE AGENT
Álex González3513.034$4.2M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis3210.074$804kFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3714.097$443kFREE AGENT
Yorvit Torrealba3310.030$254kFREE AGENT
Juan Pablo Perez336.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Shaun Marcum305.128$7.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan Braun284.129$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo264.108$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nyjer Morgan313.120$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kameron Loe304.133$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Veras314.128$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez264.141$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Parra294.063$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Chulk334.062$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ransom363.012$341kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Conrad323.078ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Norichika Aoki300.000$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Ishikawa282.072$525kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford291.170$525kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson302.102$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy261.136$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Estrada282.035$486kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Dillard281.007$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler271.027$481kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Gamel261.059$481kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Schafer250.028$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Stinson240.090$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado250.028$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bianchi252.066$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Rogers261.073$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Maysonet300.118$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Farris260.002$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Thornburg230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wily Peralta230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Green250.124$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras292.149$478kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jean Segura220.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Henderson290.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike McClendon271.086Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fiers271.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3