MIL⇄ANA

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$24.0M net +1.8

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $55M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 5.5 ± 7 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2012 odds 63% → 54% (-9.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jean Segura2B/SS·22y·R/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $46M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 3.1± 6 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

Composite #55.0 prospect (Baseball America #55 (2012)) → 0.56/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ariel PeñaP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Johnny HellwegP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

#499 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$24.0M net -1.8

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $17M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 3.3 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2012 odds 54% → 64% (+9.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zack GreinkeP·28y·R/R

+$28.4M+$28.4M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 3.3± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.6/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

3.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.