OAK⇄MIL

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $16M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2012 odds 34% → 36% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

George KottarasC·29y·L/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.63 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2012 odds 56% → 54% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fautino De Los SantosP·26y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.