NYY⇄MIL

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$4.0M net +0.7

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $34M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 3.3 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2011 odds 95% → 95% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris DickersonOF·29y·L/L

+$17.6M+$17.6M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 3.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.90/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net −$4.0M net -0.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2011 odds 82% → 80% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sergio MitreP·30y·R/R

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.