MIL⇄WSN

MILMIL Douglas Melvin net +$27.2M net +3.3

received +$50.4M+$50.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$27.2M realized received 5.9 ± 4 expected · 3.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2011 odds 64% → 80% (+16.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nyjer MorganOF·30y·L/L

+$50.2M+$50.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$27.2M 5.9± 4 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.66/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$27.2M net -3.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2011 odds 10% → 4% (-5.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cutter Dykstra2B·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.