RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

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GM: Michael Hill

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB -13.9
-13.9TAB — talent above budget26th/30
-12.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-9.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag30th/30
56%dead money %28th/30
0.391win %27th/30
14.6roster fWAR28th/30
-31surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$83Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFLewis Brinson 106GMagneuris Sierra 32GIsaac Galloway 11G
LFDerek Dietrich 97GAustin Dean 31GIsaac Galloway 18G
RFBrian Anderson 91GCameron Maybin 24GRafael Ortega 23G
SSJT Riddle 95GMiguel Rojas 83GYadiel Rivera 28G
2BStarlin Castro 150GMiguel Rojas 11GYadiel Rivera 11G
3BBrian Anderson 71GMartín Prado 48GMiguel Rojas 39G
1BMiguel Rojas 49GDerek Dietrich 33GPeter O'Brien 17G
STARTERSJosé Ureña 1.4WARCaleb Smith 1.2WARWei-Yin Chen 1.1WARTrevor Richards 1.1WARDan Straily 0.5WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 112GBryan Holaday 50GChad Wallach 14G
DHJustin Bour 4GDerek Dietrich 3GMartín Prado 1G
BULLPEN★ Kyle Barraclough 10svDrew Steckenrider 19hAdam Conley 16hTyron Guerrero 9hNick Wittgren 4hDrew Rucinski 4hJavy Guerra 1hBrett Graves 0h
CJ.T. Realmuto 112 · Bryan Holaday 50 · Chad Wallach 14
1BMiguel Rojas 49 · Derek Dietrich 33 · Peter O'Brien 17
2BStarlin Castro 150 · Miguel Rojas 11 · Yadiel Rivera 11
3BBrian Anderson 71 · Martín Prado 48 · Miguel Rojas 39
SSJT Riddle 95 · Miguel Rojas 83 · Yadiel Rivera 28
LFDerek Dietrich 97 · Austin Dean 31 · Isaac Galloway 18
CFLewis Brinson 106 · Magneuris Sierra 32 · Isaac Galloway 11
RFBrian Anderson 91 · Cameron Maybin 24 · Rafael Ortega 23
DHJustin Bour 4 · Derek Dietrich 3 · Martín Prado 1
SPJosé Ureña 1.4 · Caleb Smith 1.2 · Wei-Yin Chen 1.1 · Trevor Richards 1.1 · Dan Straily 0.5
BP★ Kyle Barraclough 10 · Drew Steckenrider 19 · Adam Conley 16 · Tyron Guerrero 9 · Nick Wittgren 4 · Drew Rucinski 4 · Javy Guerra 1 · Brett Graves 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
J.T. Realmuto 27 arb 1254.7 2.9 +13.0
Brian Anderson 25 pre-arb 1563.0 0.5 +9.7
Starlin Castro 28 FA-elig 1542.8 10.9 -1.3
Miguel Rojas 29 arb 1531.4 1.2 +3.7
José Ureña 26 pre-arb 321.4 0.6 +4.1
JT Riddle 26 pre-arb 1021.3 0.5 +4.0
Caleb Smith 26 pre-arb 161.2 1.1 +2.9
Trevor Richards 25 – 251.1 0.4 +3.3
Wei-Yin Chen 32 FA-elig 271.1 10.0 -6.3
Justin Bour↔ PHI 30 arb 1120.9 2.7 +0.3
Cameron Maybin↔ SEA 31 FA-elig 990.6 2.5 -0.5
Peter O'Brien 27 pre-arb 220.5 0.1 +1.7
Dan Straily 29 FA-elig 260.5 3.4 -1.7
Pablo López 22 – 120.5 0.3 +1.4
Drew Steckenrider 27 pre-arb 710.5 1.1 +0.6
Derek Dietrich 28 arb 1490.4 2.9 -1.4
Adam Conley 28 pre-arb 520.4 0.4 +0.9
Nick Wittgren 27 pre-arb 320.4 0.3 +0.9
Bryan Holaday 30 FA-elig 610.3 1.0 +0.0
Chad Wallach 26 pre-arb 150.3 0.5 +0.4
Odrisamer Despaigne↔ ANA 31 arb 110.2 0.6 +0.2
Isaac Galloway 28 – 430.2 0.2 +0.5
Garrett Cooper 27 pre-arb 140.2 0.5 -0.0
Tyler Kinley↔ MIN 27 pre-arb 90.1 0.4 +0.0
Martín Prado 34 FA-elig 540.1 13.5 -13.1
Drew Rucinski 29 pre-arb 320.1 0.4 -0.1
Sandy Alcantara 22 pre-arb 60.1 0.2 +0.0
Christopher Bostick↔ PIT 25 – 13-0.0 – –
Javy Guerra 32 arb 32-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Merandy Gonzalez 22 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Tomás Telis 27 arb 23-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Dillon Peters 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 1.1 -1.5
Yadiel Rivera 26 pre-arb 111-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Tyron Guerrero 27 pre-arb 60-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Jeff Brigham 26 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Jacob Turner↔ DET 27 FA-elig 4-0.2 1.6 -2.2
Brett Graves 25 pre-arb 21-0.2 1.1 -1.7
Austin Dean 24 – 34-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Braxton Lee 24 pre-arb 8-0.2 1.1 -1.7
Chris O'Grady 28 pre-arb 8-0.2 1.1 -1.8
Tyler Cloyd 31 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Ben Meyer 25 – 13-0.3 0.3 -1.4
Junichi Tazawa↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 22-0.4 5.0 -6.4
Brad Ziegler↔ ARI 38 FA-elig 53-0.5 5.8 -7.4
Rafael Ortega 27 – 41-0.5 – –
Elieser Hernández 23 pre-arb 32-0.6 1.1 -3.1
Kyle Barraclough 28 arb 61-0.6 1.1 -3.2
Magneuris Sierra 22 pre-arb 54-1.0 0.2 -3.7
JB Shuck 31 FA-elig 70-1.1 0.8 -4.4
Lewis Brinson 24 pre-arb 109-1.2 0.5 -4.8
Jarlín García 25 pre-arb 29-1.4 0.6 -5.3

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Starlin Castro2.8
Caleb Smith1.2
Trevor Richards1.1
Cameron Maybin0.6
Peter O'Brien0.5
Pablo López0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Giancarlo Stanton6.4
Marcell Ozuna5.6
Christian Yelich4.0
Dee Strange-Gordon2.5
David Phelps0.3
AJ Ramos0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$82.6M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Martín Prado3410.105$13.5MFREE AGENT
Starlin Castro287.150$10.9MFREE AGENT
Wei-Yin Chen326.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler389.122$5.8MFREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa327.086$5.0MFREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin318.073$2.5MFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra327.000$246kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Dan Straily293.126$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Dietrich283.151$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto273.038$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bour303.064$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Turner274.033$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Rojas293.043$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Holaday303.056$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JB Shuck313.080$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (36)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Kyle Barraclough282.059$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Smith260.062$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Peters250.031$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Graves250.000$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Steckenrider270.094$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elieser Hernández230.000$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braxton Lee240.000$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris O'Grady280.087$1.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Odrisamer Despaigne312.075$631kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ureña262.040$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarlín García251.002$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cooper270.053$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewis Brinson240.025$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Anderson250.031$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Wallach260.035$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomás Telis271.044$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Riddle260.158$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyron Guerrero272.000$545kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yadiel Rivera260.105$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards250.000$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Conley282.011$398kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Kinley270.000$377kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rucinski290.042$352kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Wittgren271.135$290kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pablo López220.000$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Meyer25–$264k
Sandy Alcantara220.031$205kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Magneuris Sierra220.042$201kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Galloway28–$182k
Austin Dean240.000$138kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Cloyd310.114$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Brigham260.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter O'Brien270.082$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Merandy Gonzalez220.026$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Ortega270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christopher Bostick25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.