MIA⇄WSN

MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$4.0M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net −$4.0M net -0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $13M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2019 odds 90% → 88% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle BarracloughP·29y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.