MIA⇄PHI

MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2018 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

McKenzie MillsP·22y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#544 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Matt Klentak net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $29M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.6 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2018 odds 10% → 9% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin Bour1B·30y·L/R

+$10.6M+$10.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.6± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.30/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.