MIA⇄ANA

MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler StevensP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#535 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Billy Eppler net −$2.4M net -0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2019 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dillon PetersP·26y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#287 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.