RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

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GM: Michael Hill

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.84× league · TAB -1.2
-1.2TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-2.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
60%dead money %29th/30
0.475win %18th/30
30.9roster fWAR15th/30
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$110Mpayroll $M20th/30

Roster

CFChristian Yelich 155GIchiro Suzuki 10GMarcell Ozuna 3G
LFMarcell Ozuna 152GIchiro Suzuki 9GTyler Moore 7G
RFGiancarlo Stanton 149GIchiro Suzuki 16GTyler Moore 6G
SSMiguel Rojas 77GJT Riddle 69GMike Aviles 15G
2BDee Strange-Gordon 153GChristian Colón 10GDerek Dietrich 10G
3BDerek Dietrich 103GMartín Prado 34GBrian Anderson 25G
1BJustin Bour 102GTyler Moore 45GTomás Telis 28G
STARTERSDan Straily 1.7WAREdinson Volquez 1.0WAROdrisamer Despaigne 0.6WARWei-Yin Chen 0.5WARVance Worley 0.2WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 126GA.J. Ellis 39GTomás Telis 6G
DHGiancarlo Stanton 4GMarcell Ozuna 2GJ.T. Realmuto 2G
BULLPEN★ Brad Ziegler 10svKyle Barraclough 22hJarlín García 15hDrew Steckenrider 10hJunichi Tazawa 9hBrian Ellington 6hNick Wittgren 5hDustin McGowan 3h
CJ.T. Realmuto 126 · A.J. Ellis 39 · Tomás Telis 6
1BJustin Bour 102 · Tyler Moore 45 · Tomás Telis 28
2BDee Strange-Gordon 153 · Christian Colón 10 · Derek Dietrich 10
3BDerek Dietrich 103 · Martín Prado 34 · Brian Anderson 25
SSMiguel Rojas 77 · JT Riddle 69 · Mike Aviles 15
LFMarcell Ozuna 152 · Ichiro Suzuki 9 · Tyler Moore 7
CFChristian Yelich 155 · Ichiro Suzuki 10 · Marcell Ozuna 3
RFGiancarlo Stanton 149 · Ichiro Suzuki 16 · Tyler Moore 6
DHGiancarlo Stanton 4 · Marcell Ozuna 2 · J.T. Realmuto 2
SPDan Straily 1.7 · Edinson Volquez 1.0 · Odrisamer Despaigne 0.6 · Wei-Yin Chen 0.5 · Vance Worley 0.2
BP★ Brad Ziegler 10 · Kyle Barraclough 22 · Jarlín García 15 · Drew Steckenrider 10 · Junichi Tazawa 9 · Brian Ellington 6 · Nick Wittgren 5 · Dustin McGowan 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Giancarlo Stanton 27 FA-elig 1596.4 14.5 +7.2
Marcell Ozuna 26 arb 1595.6 3.5 +15.2
J.T. Realmuto 26 arb 1414.5 0.6 +14.5
Christian Yelich 25 arb 1564.0 3.5 +9.9
Dee Strange-Gordon 29 FA-elig 1582.5 7.8 +0.7
Justin Bour 29 arb 1082.3 0.6 +7.4
Dan Straily 28 arb 331.7 0.6 +5.1
Miguel Rojas 28 arb 901.5 0.5 +4.5
Edinson Volquez 33 FA-elig 171.0 9.0 -5.7
Derek Dietrich 27 arb 1351.0 1.7 +1.6
Drew Steckenrider 26 – 370.6 0.3 +1.8
Kyle Barraclough 27 pre-arb 660.6 0.5 +1.5
Odrisamer Despaigne 30 arb 180.6 0.5 +1.4
Wei-Yin Chen 31 arb 90.5 15.5 -13.8
Brad Ziegler 37 FA-elig 530.5 7.0 -5.4
David Phelps↔ SEA 30 arb 440.3 3.7 -2.7
Nick Wittgren 26 pre-arb 380.3 0.5 +0.5
AJ Ramos↔ NYM 30 arb 400.3 4.3 -3.4
Jarlín García 24 pre-arb 680.3 0.5 +0.4
Adeiny Hechavarría↔ TBR 28 arb 200.2 0.9 -0.2
Jeff Locke 29 FA-elig 70.2 3.0 -2.5
Vance Worley 29 arb 260.2 0.4 +0.1
Chris O'Grady 27 – 130.1 0.3 +0.2
Javy Guerra 31 arb 160.1 0.1 +0.1
Dillon Peters 24 – 60.1 0.1 +0.2
Brian Anderson 24 – 250.1 0.1 +0.1
JT Riddle 25 – 700.0 0.5 -0.5
A.J. Ellis 36 FA-elig 51-0.0 2.5 -2.6
José Ureña 25 pre-arb 36-0.0 0.5 -0.7
Tyler Moore 30 arb 104-0.1 1.0 -1.2
Adam Conley 27 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Hunter Cervenka 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Christian Colón↔ KCR 28 arb 17-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 28 – 2-0.2 – –
Mike Aviles 36 FA-elig 37-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Martín Prado 33 FA-elig 37-0.2 11.5 -12.3
Ichiro Suzuki 43 FA-elig 136-0.3 2.0 -2.9
Junichi Tazawa 31 FA-elig 55-0.3 5.0 -6.0
Tomás Telis 26 pre-arb 48-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Dustin McGowan 35 FA-elig 63-0.4 1.8 -3.0
Justin Nicolino 25 pre-arb 20-0.4 0.3 -1.8
Brian Ellington 26 pre-arb 42-0.6 0.3 -2.2
Tom Koehler↔ TOR 31 arb 12-1.0 2.6 -6.1

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Dan Straily1.7
Edinson Volquez1.0
Drew Steckenrider0.6
Brad Ziegler0.5
Jarlín García0.3
Jeff Locke0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
José Fernández6.8
Jeff Mathis0.7
Andrew Cashner0.3
Mike Dunn0.3
Colin Rea0.2
Jarred Cosart0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$109.7M
2018 guaranteed
$25.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Giancarlo Stanton276.118$14.5M$25.0M$26.0M$9.6M$29.0MOPT-OUT$29.0M$32.0M
Martín Prado339.105$11.5MFREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez339.059$9.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler378.122$7.0MFREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa316.086$5.0MFREE AGENT
A.J. Ellis366.151$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ichiro Suzuki4316.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan359.161$1.8MFREE AGENT
Mike Aviles368.060$535kFREE AGENT
Javy Guerra316.000$132kFREE AGENT
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.286.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Wei-Yin Chen315.000$15.5MFREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon294.154$7.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Ramos304.030$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
David Phelps304.156$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna263.124$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Yelich253.069$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Locke294.020$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Koehler314.016$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Moore303.018$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adeiny Hechavarría284.060$897kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vance Worley294.112$395kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Derek Dietrich272.151$1.7MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto262.038$562kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bour292.064$552kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily282.126$552kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Conley271.070$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough271.059$536kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Rojas282.043$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Odrisamer Despaigne302.075$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ureña251.040$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Wittgren260.143$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarlín García240.004$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Riddle250.000$462kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Colón282.008$399kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Ellington260.144$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Nicolino250.155$289kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Steckenrider260.000$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris O'Grady270.000$257kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomás Telis260.134$237kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Anderson240.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Peters240.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Cervenka271.000$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.