RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

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GM: Mike Berger

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.56× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-3.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars17th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
40%dead money %18th/30
0.438win %24th/30
27.6roster fWAR21st/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$68Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFMarcell Ozuna 111GChristian Yelich 36GCole Gillespie 31G
LFChristian Yelich 103GDerek Dietrich 46GIchiro Suzuki 30G
RFIchiro Suzuki 73GGiancarlo Stanton 71GCole Gillespie 17G
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 130GMiguel Rojas 32GDonovan Solano 10G
2BDee Strange-Gordon 145GMartín Prado 11GMiguel Rojas 9G
3BMartín Prado 124GCasey McGehee 42GDerek Dietrich 26G
1BJustin Bour 111GCasey McGehee 21GJeff Baker 17G
STARTERSJosé Fernández 2.3WARAdam Conley 1.2WARDavid Phelps 1.1WARTom Koehler 0.8WARBrad Hand 0.2WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 118GJeff Mathis 30GTomás Telis 11G
DHGiancarlo Stanton 3GCasey McGehee 2GIchiro Suzuki 2G
BULLPEN★ AJ Ramos 32svMike Dunn 23hBryan Morris 18hCarter Capps 11hKyle Barraclough 6hBrian Ellington 2hChris Narveson 0hAndré Rienzo 0h
CJ.T. Realmuto 118 · Jeff Mathis 30 · Tomás Telis 11
1BJustin Bour 111 · Casey McGehee 21 · Jeff Baker 17
2BDee Strange-Gordon 145 · Martín Prado 11 · Miguel Rojas 9
3BMartín Prado 124 · Casey McGehee 42 · Derek Dietrich 26
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 130 · Miguel Rojas 32 · Donovan Solano 10
LFChristian Yelich 103 · Derek Dietrich 46 · Ichiro Suzuki 30
CFMarcell Ozuna 111 · Christian Yelich 36 · Cole Gillespie 31
RFIchiro Suzuki 73 · Giancarlo Stanton 71 · Cole Gillespie 17
DHGiancarlo Stanton 3 · Casey McGehee 2 · Ichiro Suzuki 2
SPJosé Fernández 2.3 · Adam Conley 1.2 · David Phelps 1.1 · Tom Koehler 0.8 · Brad Hand 0.2
BP★ AJ Ramos 32 · Mike Dunn 23 · Bryan Morris 18 · Carter Capps 11 · Kyle Barraclough 6 · Brian Ellington 2 · Chris Narveson 0 · André Rienzo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dee Strange-Gordon 27 arb 1454.8 2.5 +12.6
Giancarlo Stanton 25 arb 743.5 6.5 +4.5
Martín Prado 31 FA-elig 1293.4 11.0 -0.3
Adeiny Hechavarría 26 arb 1302.6 1.9 +6.2
Christian Yelich 23 pre-arb 1262.4 0.6 +6.8
José Fernández 22 pre-arb 112.3 0.7 +6.6
Mat Latos↔ ANA 27 FA-elig 161.8 6.3 -0.6
Marcell Ozuna 24 pre-arb 1231.5 0.5 +4.1
Carter Capps 24 pre-arb 301.4 0.4 +3.9
AJ Ramos 28 arb 711.3 0.5 +3.5
Adam Conley 25 – 151.2 0.2 +3.6
David Phelps 28 arb 231.1 1.4 +2.1
Dan Haren↔ CHC 34 FA-elig 221.0 6.7 -3.6
Tom Koehler 29 arb 320.8 0.6 +2.0
Miguel Rojas 26 pre-arb 600.7 0.3 +1.9
Derek Dietrich 25 pre-arb 900.6 0.3 +1.6
Justin Bour 27 pre-arb 1290.5 0.4 +1.1
Henderson Alvarez 25 arb 40.4 4.0 -2.8
Bryan Morris 28 arb 670.3 0.5 +0.5
Brad Hand 25 arb 380.2 0.5 +0.3
Sam Dyson↔ TEX 27 arb 440.2 0.3 +0.5
Steve Cishek↔ STL 29 arb 320.2 3.6 -2.8
Mike Dunn 30 FA-elig 720.2 2.4 -1.6
Kyle Barraclough 25 – 250.2 0.2 +0.5
Kendry Flores 23 pre-arb 70.2 0.2 +0.4
Cole Gillespie 31 pre-arb 670.2 0.3 +0.3
J.T. Realmuto 24 pre-arb 1260.2 0.5 +0.1
Nick Masset↔ ATL 33 – 80.1 0.3 +0.2
Brian Ellington 24 – 230.1 0.2 +0.0
Vin Mazzaro 28 – 100.1 0.1 +0.1
José Ureña 23 – 200.1 0.3 -0.1
Chris Reed 25 – 20.0 – –
Scott McGough 25 – 60.0 0.1 +0.0
Don Kelly 35 FA-elig 2-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Raudel Lazo 26 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Erik Cordier 29 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jordany Valdespin 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Jeff Mathis 32 FA-elig 32-0.1 1.5 -1.8
Reid Brignac 29 – 17-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Justin Nicolino 23 – 13-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Jeff Baker 34 FA-elig 41-0.2 2.1 -2.6
André Rienzo 26 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Chris Narveson 33 arb 15-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Jhonatan Solano 29 pre-arb 7-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Jarred Cosart 25 pre-arb 15-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Jarrod Saltalamacchia↔ ARI 30 – 9-0.4 0.8 -2.0
Tomás Telis↔ TEX 24 pre-arb 17-0.5 0.1 -1.8
Casey McGehee↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 60-0.7 2.6 -4.9
Michael Morse↔ PIT 33 – 53-0.8 – –
Ichiro Suzuki 41 FA-elig 153-0.8 3.2 -5.6
Donovan Solano 27 arb 55-0.8 0.5 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Dee Strange-Gordon4.8
Martín Prado3.4
Mat Latos1.8
Adam Conley1.2
David Phelps1.1
Dan Haren1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Nathan Eovaldi3.1
Chris Hatcher0.8
Jacob Turner0.7
Enrique Hernández0.4
Garrett Jones0.3
Dan Jennings0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$67.8M
2016 guaranteed
$9.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Martín Prado317.105$11.0MFREE AGENT
Dan Haren3410.154$6.7MFREE AGENT
Giancarlo Stanton254.118$6.5M$9.0M$14.5M$25.0M$26.0M$9.6M$29.0MOPT-OUT
Ichiro Suzuki4114.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jeff Baker3410.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Jeff Mathis328.012$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia307.043$797kFREE AGENT
Nick Masset337.146$286kFREE AGENT
Michael Morse3310.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Mat Latos275.079$6.3MFREE AGENT
Henderson Alvarez254.000$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek293.143$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey McGehee325.028$2.6MFREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon274.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Dunn304.079$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Don Kelly355.138$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart253.113$540kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson334.012$166kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vin Mazzaro283.065$97kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Brignac294.033$64kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Adeiny Hechavarría262.060$1.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Phelps282.156$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Fernández222.000$651kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Yelich231.069$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Koehler292.016$555kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna241.153$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donovan Solano272.125$532kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Morris282.011$532kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Ramos282.030$530kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Hand251.092$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto240.038$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bour270.064$436kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Capps242.037$388kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Dietrich251.036$319kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ureña230.000$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Dyson270.142$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Gillespie311.105$277kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Rojas260.115$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
André Rienzo261.084$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Conley250.000$191kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendry Flores230.070$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Nicolino230.000$177kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Ellington240.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough250.000$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Cordier290.129$133kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhonatan Solano291.027$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomás Telis240.035$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott McGough250.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raudel Lazo260.033$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordany Valdespin271.148$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Reed25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.