received +$94.4M +$85.6M ± $66M expected surplus · +$56.8M realized
received 14.0 ± 8 expected · 7.7 realized WAR
receives — most valuable first
Alex WoodP·24y·R/L
+$46.7M +$46.7M ± $39M
exp surplus realized +$69.6M 6.7 ± 5
exp WAR realized 6.7
Prior #85 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 2.1 /yr over 1.6 season
Talent 1.33 /yr blendedHorizon 5.0 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Mat LatosP·27y·R/R
+$33.0M +$33.0M ± $11M
exp surplus realized −$11.2M 2.5 ± 1
exp WAR realized 0.3
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 3.8 /yr over 2.1 seasons
Talent 2.51 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
José Peraza2B/SS·21y·R/R
+$8.6M +$8.6M ± $50M
exp surplus realized −$0.8M 3.1 ± 6
exp WAR realized -0.1
Prior Composite #54.0 prospect (Baseball America #54 (2015)) → 0.57 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.57 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Mike Morse1B/OF·33y·R/R
+$4.6M +$0.5M ± $6M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.7 ± 1
exp WAR realized 0.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 1.0 /yr over 2.0 seasons
Talent 0.70 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Jim JohnsonP·32y·R/R
+$0.8M +$0.8M ± $6M
exp surplus realized −$2.4M 0.3 ± 1
exp WAR realized -0.3
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 0.4 /yr over 2.7 seasons
Talent 0.31 /yr blendedHorizon 1.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
Luis AvilánP·25y·L/L
+$0.6M +$0.6M ± $16M
exp surplus realized +$1.6M 0.7 ± 2
exp WAR realized 1.1
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 0.1 /yr over 2.1 seasons
Talent 0.17 /yr blendedHorizon 4.0 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Bronson ArroyoP·38y·R/R
+$0.0M −$5.0M ± $0M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.0 ± 0
exp WAR realized 0.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 1.0 /yr over 2.3 seasons
Talent 0.71 /yr blendedHorizon 0.0 control yr
why ▾ hide ▴
received +$2.4M +$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized
received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
receives — most valuable first
Jeff BrighamP·23y·R/R
+$1.8M +$1.8M ± $19M
exp surplus realized −$0.8M 1.2 ± 2
exp WAR realized -0.0
Prior #129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.21 /yr blendedHorizon 5.5 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Kevin Guzman
+$0.3M +$0.3M ± $6M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.2 ± 1
exp WAR realized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
why ▾ hide ▴
Victor Araujo
+$0.3M +$0.3M ± $6M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.2 ± 1
exp WAR realized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
why ▾ hide ▴
received +$5.6M +$5.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized
received 2.4 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR
receives — most valuable first
Paco RodríguezP·24y·L/L
+$6.2M +$6.2M ± $26M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 1.9 ± 3
exp WAR realized 0.0
Prior league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21 /yr
Evidence recent form 0.5 /yr over 1.4 season
Talent 0.38 /yr blendedHorizon 5.0 control yrs
why ▾ hide ▴
Zachary Bird
+$0.3M +$0.3M ± $6M
exp surplus realized +$0.0M 0.2 ± 1
exp WAR realized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)
why ▾ hide ▴
Héctor Olivera3B·30y·R/R
−$1.4M −$1.4M ± $11M
exp surplus realized −$12.0M 0.3 ± 1
exp WAR realized -0.3
Prior no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21 /yr
Evidence no MLB track record — leans on pedigreeTalent 0.21 /yr blendedHorizon 4.4 control yrs × 0.35 age decline
why ▾ hide ▴
LAD⇄
MIA⇄
ATL