Alex Wood Trade — July 30, 2015 · ATL / LAD / MIA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$22.4M net +8.0

received +$55.2M+$45.6M ± $78M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 13.7 ± 10 expected · 7.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2015 odds 83% → 84% (+1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex WoodP·24y·R/L

+$27.2M+$27.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$23.2M 6.7± 5 exp WARrealized 6.7

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 2.1/yr over 1.6 season
Talent: 1.33/yr blended
Horizon: 5.0 control yrs

Mat LatosP·28y·R/R

+$11.2M+$11.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 3.1/yr over 2.6 seasons
Talent: 2.17/yr blended
Horizon: 1.0 control yr

José Peraza#542B/SS·21y·R/R

+$11.2M+$11.2M± $58M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.1± 7 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior: BA #54 prospect (2015) → 0.57/yr
Evidence: no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent: 0.57/yr blended
Horizon: 5.5 control yrs

Mike Morse1B/OF·33y·R/R

+$4.0M−$0.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 1.0/yr over 2.0 seasons
Talent: 0.70/yr blended
Horizon: 1.0 control yr

Jim JohnsonP·32y·R/R

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons
Talent: 0.31/yr blended
Horizon: 1.0 control yr

Luis AvilánP·26y·L/L

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior: no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons
Talent: 0.17/yr blended
Horizon: 4.0 control yrs

Bronson ArroyoP·38y·R/R

+$0.0M−$4.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 0.8/yr over 2.8 seasons
Talent: 0.63/yr blended
Horizon: 0.0 control yr

MIAMIA Mike Berger net +$11.2M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $60M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.6 ± 8 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2015 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff BrighamP·23y·R/R

+$1.6M+$1.6M± $58M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 7 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior: #129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence: no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent: 0.21/yr blended
Horizon: 5.5 control yrs

Kevin Guzman

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Victor Araujo

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

ATLATL John Hart net −$33.6M net -7.7

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $44M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 2.1 ± 6 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2015 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paco RodríguezP·24y·L/L

+$4.8M+$4.8M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior: league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form 0.4/yr over 2.0 seasons
Talent: 0.32/yr blended
Horizon: 5.0 control yrs

Zachary Bird

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Héctor Olivera3B·30y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior: no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence: no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent: 0.21/yr blended
Horizon: 4.4 control yrs × 0.35 age decline

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →

LAD⇄MIA⇄ATL