RRosternomics
𝕏

Marlins MIA

‹ ›

GM: Michael Hill

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB +8.4
+8.4TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+4.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
39%dead money %19th/30
0.491win %17th/30
36.1roster fWAR14th/30
+42surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$75Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFMarcell Ozuna 123GChristian Yelich 31GIchiro Suzuki 14G
LFChristian Yelich 120GJeff Francoeur 63GIchiro Suzuki 14G
RFGiancarlo Stanton 106GIchiro Suzuki 54GJeff Francoeur 17G
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 153GMiguel Rojas 33GYefri Pérez 2G
2BDee Strange-Gordon 78GDerek Dietrich 75GMiguel Rojas 45G
3BMartín Prado 150GMiguel Rojas 16GDerek Dietrich 13G
1BJustin Bour 82GChris Johnson 81GMiguel Rojas 41G
STARTERSJosé Fernández 6.8WARDavid Phelps 2.1WARAdam Conley 1.4WARTom Koehler 0.8WARJustin Nicolino 0.6WAR
CJ.T. Realmuto 129GJeff Mathis 38GTomás Telis 3G
DHIchiro Suzuki 3GJ.T. Realmuto 2GGiancarlo Stanton 2G
BULLPEN★ AJ Ramos 40svKyle Barraclough 29hHunter Cervenka 11hFernando Rodney 8hMike Dunn 8hNick Wittgren 6hDustin McGowan 3hBrian Ellington 3h
CJ.T. Realmuto 129 · Jeff Mathis 38 · Tomás Telis 3
1BJustin Bour 82 · Chris Johnson 81 · Miguel Rojas 41
2BDee Strange-Gordon 78 · Derek Dietrich 75 · Miguel Rojas 45
3BMartín Prado 150 · Miguel Rojas 16 · Derek Dietrich 13
SSAdeiny Hechavarría 153 · Miguel Rojas 33 · Yefri Pérez 2
LFChristian Yelich 120 · Jeff Francoeur 63 · Ichiro Suzuki 14
CFMarcell Ozuna 123 · Christian Yelich 31 · Ichiro Suzuki 14
RFGiancarlo Stanton 106 · Ichiro Suzuki 54 · Jeff Francoeur 17
DHIchiro Suzuki 3 · J.T. Realmuto 2 · Giancarlo Stanton 2
SPJosé Fernández 6.8 · David Phelps 2.1 · Adam Conley 1.4 · Tom Koehler 0.8 · Justin Nicolino 0.6
BP★ AJ Ramos 40 · Kyle Barraclough 29 · Hunter Cervenka 11 · Fernando Rodney 8 · Mike Dunn 8 · Nick Wittgren 6 · Dustin McGowan 3 · Brian Ellington 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
José Fernández 23 arb 306.8 2.8 +19.3
Christian Yelich 24 arb 1555.3 1.0 +16.2
Martín Prado 32 FA-elig 1533.2 11.0 -0.6
Marcell Ozuna 25 arb 1482.5 0.6 +7.4
J.T. Realmuto 25 pre-arb 1372.3 0.5 +7.0
Derek Dietrich 26 arb 1282.2 0.5 +6.6
Kyle Barraclough 26 pre-arb 752.2 0.5 +6.5
David Phelps 29 arb 642.1 2.5 +4.2
Giancarlo Stanton 26 FA-elig 1191.9 9.0 -2.7
Ichiro Suzuki 42 FA-elig 1431.6 2.0 +3.1
AJ Ramos 29 arb 671.5 3.4 +1.4
Adam Conley 26 pre-arb 251.4 0.5 +4.0
Justin Bour 28 pre-arb 901.1 0.5 +3.1
Tom Koehler 30 arb 330.8 3.5 -0.8
Dee Strange-Gordon 28 arb 790.8 3.3 -0.9
Jeff Mathis 33 FA-elig 410.7 1.5 +0.9
Adeiny Hechavarría 27 arb 1550.7 2.6 -0.4
Justin Nicolino 24 pre-arb 180.6 0.2 +1.6
Andrew Cashner↔ SDP 29 FA-elig 120.3 3.1 -2.0
Wei-Yin Chen 30 arb 220.3 12.5 -11.4
Nick Wittgren 25 – 480.3 0.4 +0.6
Mike Dunn 31 FA-elig 510.3 3.5 -2.4
José Ureña 24 pre-arb 290.3 0.3 +0.7
Brian Ellington 25 pre-arb 320.3 0.2 +0.6
Colin Rea↔ SDP 25 pre-arb 10.2 0.0 +0.5
Jarred Cosart↔ SDP 26 arb 40.1 0.2 +0.2
Tomás Telis 25 pre-arb 100.1 0.1 +0.2
Jeff Francoeur↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 260.1 0.2 +0.0
Miguel Rojas 27 pre-arb 1230.1 0.5 -0.3
Craig Breslow 35 FA-elig 150.1 1.5 -1.3
Nefi Ogando 27 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.1
Yefri Pérez 25 pre-arb 120.0 0.1 +0.0
Dustin McGowan 34 FA-elig 55-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Odrisamer Despaigne↔ BAL 29 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Austin Brice 24 – 15-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Jo-Jo Reyes 31 arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Kendry Flores 24 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Oswaldo Arcia↔ MIN 25 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Hunter Cervenka↔ ATL 26 – 18-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Robert Andino 32 – 13-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Cody Hall 28 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Don Kelly 36 FA-elig 13-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Cole Gillespie 32 pre-arb 41-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Cody Ege↔ ANA 25 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Destin Hood 26 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Xavier Scruggs 28 pre-arb 24-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Edwin Jackson↔ SDP 32 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Jake Esch 26 – 3-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Chris Narveson 34 FA-elig 6-0.4 1.2 -2.5
Fernando Rodney↔ SDP 39 FA-elig 39-0.4 0.9 -2.3
Paul Clemens↔ SDP 28 – 2-0.5 0.0 -1.7
Bryan Morris 29 arb 24-0.5 1.4 -3.1
Chris Johnson 31 FA-elig 113-0.8 0.5 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Andrew Cashner0.3
Wei-Yin Chen0.3
Nick Wittgren0.3
Colin Rea0.2
Jeff Francoeur0.1
Craig Breslow0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Mat Latos1.8
Dan Haren1.0
Henderson Alvarez0.4
Brad Hand0.2
Sam Dyson0.2
Steve Cishek0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$75.3M
2017 guaranteed
$14.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Martín Prado328.105$11.0MFREE AGENT
Giancarlo Stanton265.118$9.0M$14.5M$25.0M$26.0M$9.6M$29.0MOPT-OUT$29.0M
Ichiro Suzuki4215.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Breslow3511.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Mathis339.012$1.5MFREE AGENT
Dustin McGowan348.170$1.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney3912.137$931kFREE AGENT
Jeff Francoeur329.075$208kFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson3210.064$169kFREE AGENT
Robert Andino327.094$89kFREE AGENT
Don Kelly366.138$61kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Wei-Yin Chen304.000$12.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Koehler303.016$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Dunn315.079$3.5MFREE AGENT
AJ Ramos293.030$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dee Strange-Gordon283.154$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner295.126$3.1MFREE AGENT
José Fernández233.000$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adeiny Hechavarría273.060$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Phelps293.156$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Morris293.011$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Narveson344.073$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Johnson315.144$507kFREE AGENT
Jarred Cosart263.113$169kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jo-Jo Reyes313.007$8kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Christian Yelich242.069$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna252.124$570kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bour281.064$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.T. Realmuto251.038$532kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Dietrich261.151$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Conley260.070$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Rojas271.042$511kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough260.059$469kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Wittgren250.000$397kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendry Flores240.070$394kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Gillespie322.033$300kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ureña240.112$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Nicolino240.066$247kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Ellington250.063$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Scruggs280.050$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Brice240.000$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nefi Ogando270.029$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tomás Telis250.096$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Esch26–$94k
Yefri Pérez250.032$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Destin Hood260.032$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Cervenka260.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Clemens281.024$30kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea251.000$24kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ege25–$24k
Odrisamer Despaigne292.075$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oswaldo Arcia252.020$16kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Hall281.034$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.