MIA⇄ANA

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$5.6M net +1.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2007 odds 4% → 5% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GreggP·29y·R/R

+$4.6M+$4.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$5.6M net -1.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2007 odds 58% → 51% (-6.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris ResopP·24y·R/R

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#122 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.