MIA⇄NYM

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$10.4M net +1.3

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $37M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.5 ± 5 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2007 odds 4% → 5% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt LindstromP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

#297 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Henry OwensP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$10.4M net -1.3

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $38M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 3.8 ± 5 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2007 odds 64% → 55% (-8.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason VargasP·24y·L/L

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#68 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.62/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Adam BostickP·24y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#182 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.