RRosternomics
𝕏

Marlins MIA

‹ ›

GM: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.4× league · TAB -3.2
-3.2TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-6.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-5.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
29%dead money %15th/30
0.395win %29th/30
19.9roster fWAR26th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$20Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFPreston Wilson 111GTodd Dunwoody 44GDanny Bautista 18G
LFBruce Aven 78GCliff Floyd 62GPreston Wilson 23G
RFMark Kotsay 129GDanny Bautista 31GBruce Aven 24G
SSÁlex González 135GDave Berg 37GChris Clapinski 6G
2BLuis Castillo 126GDave Berg 29GAmaury Garcia 8G
3BMike Lowell 83GKevin Orie 64GDave Berg 19G
1BKevin Millar 94GDerrek Lee 66GMark Kotsay 19G
STARTERSAlex Fernandez 3.5WARDennis Springer 1.3WARVladimir Nunez 0.8WARA.J. Burnett 0.5WARRyan Dempster 0.5WAR
CMike Redmond 82GRamon Castro 24GGuillermo Garcia 3G
DHBruce Aven 6GCliff Floyd 3G
BULLPEN★ Antonio Alfonseca 21svBrian Edmondson 9hVic Darensbourg 9hBraden Looper 8hArmando Almanza 3hHector Almonte 2hArchie Corbin 0hRafael Medina 0h
CMike Redmond 82 · Ramon Castro 24 · Guillermo Garcia 3
1BKevin Millar 94 · Derrek Lee 66 · Mark Kotsay 19
2BLuis Castillo 126 · Dave Berg 29 · Amaury Garcia 8
3BMike Lowell 83 · Kevin Orie 64 · Dave Berg 19
SSÁlex González 135 · Dave Berg 37 · Chris Clapinski 6
LFBruce Aven 78 · Cliff Floyd 62 · Preston Wilson 23
CFPreston Wilson 111 · Todd Dunwoody 44 · Danny Bautista 18
RFMark Kotsay 129 · Danny Bautista 31 · Bruce Aven 24
DHBruce Aven 6 · Cliff Floyd 3
SPAlex Fernandez 3.5 · Dennis Springer 1.3 · Vladimir Nunez 0.8 · A.J. Burnett 0.5 · Ryan Dempster 0.5
BP★ Antonio Alfonseca 21 · Brian Edmondson 9 · Vic Darensbourg 9 · Braden Looper 8 · Armando Almanza 3 · Hector Almonte 2 · Archie Corbin 0 · Rafael Medina 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1999 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alex Fernandez 29 FA-elig 253.5 7.0 -2.6
Livan Hernandez↔ SFG 24 arb 202.2 1.2 +1.5
Bruce Aven 27 pre-arb 1371.9 0.2 +2.2
Mike Redmond 28 pre-arb 841.9 0.2 +2.1
Luis Castillo 23 arb 1281.8 0.2 +2.1
Dave Berg 28 pre-arb 1091.6 0.2 +1.8
Cliff Floyd 26 FA-elig 691.4 2.5 -0.8
Kevin Orie 26 pre-arb 771.3 0.2 +1.4
Dennis Springer 34 arb 381.3 0.3 +1.2
Antonio Alfonseca 27 pre-arb 730.8 0.2 +0.8
Mark Kotsay 23 pre-arb 1480.8 0.3 +0.7
Vladimir Nunez↔ ARI 24 pre-arb 170.8 0.1 +0.9
Preston Wilson 24 pre-arb 1490.7 0.2 +0.7
Reid Cornelius 29 – 50.6 – –
A.J. Burnett 22 pre-arb 70.5 0.2 +0.5
Braden Looper 24 pre-arb 720.5 0.2 +0.5
Kevin Millar 27 pre-arb 1050.5 0.2 +0.5
Danny Bautista 27 FA-elig 700.5 0.3 +0.3
Mike Lowell 25 pre-arb 970.5 0.2 +0.4
Ryan Dempster 22 pre-arb 260.5 0.2 +0.4
Jorge Fabregas↔ ATL 29 arb 820.4 1.7 -1.2
Matt Mantei↔ ARI 25 arb 350.3 0.4 -0.0
Armando Almanza 26 pre-arb 140.3 0.2 +0.1
Brian Meadows 23 pre-arb 310.3 0.3 +0.1
Amaury Garcia 24 – 100.2 – –
Álex González 22 pre-arb 1360.2 0.2 +0.0
Archie Corbin 31 – 170.1 – –
Ramon Castro 23 pre-arb 240.1 0.2 -0.0
Hector Almonte 23 – 150.1 – –
Michael Tejera 22 – 3-0.0 – –
Chris Clapinski 27 pre-arb 36-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Guillermo Garcia 27 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Kirt Ojala 30 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Brian Edmondson 26 pre-arb 68-0.1 0.2 -0.3
John Roskos 24 – 13-0.1 – –
Julio Ramirez 21 – 15-0.2 – –
Tim Hyers 27 arb 58-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Vic Darensbourg 28 pre-arb 56-0.3 0.3 -0.6
Rafael Medina 24 pre-arb 20-0.3 0.2 -0.5
Brent Billingsley 24 – 8-0.4 – –
Craig Counsell↔ LAD 28 arb 37-0.7 0.1 -1.0
Derrek Lee 23 pre-arb 70-0.8 0.3 -1.3
Jesus Sanchez 24 pre-arb 60-1.2 0.3 -1.8
Todd Dunwoody 24 pre-arb 64-1.4 0.2 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 1998)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Fernandez3.5
Bruce Aven1.9
Dennis Springer1.3
Vladimir Nunez0.8
Reid Cornelius0.6
A.J. Burnett0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 1998)

Player1998 fWAR
Todd Zeile1.2
Edgar Renteria0.9
Charles Johnson0.6
Bobby Bonilla0.4
Felix Heredia0.3
Gary Sheffield0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1999 payroll
$19.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 1999, 1999–2005. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Alex Fernandez299.000$7.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Cliff Floyd266.000$2.5M$4.5M$5.5M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Danny Bautista276.000$325k$332kFREE AGENT
Archie Corbin318.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Jorge Fabregas295.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez243.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Mantei254.000$396kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Springer344.000$335kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo233.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hyers275.000$200kFREE AGENT
Craig Counsell284.000$104kARB 3FREE AGENT
Reid Cornelius294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc1999200020012002200320042005
Mark Kotsay232.000$280kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derrek Lee232.000$265kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Sanchez241.000$265kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vic Darensbourg281.000$265kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Meadows231.000$265kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Alfonseca272.000$250kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Edmondson261.000$240kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirt Ojala302.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Orie262.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Berg281.000$235kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Dunwoody242.000$222kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Redmond281.000$220kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster221.000$202kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Lowell251.000$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Looper241.000$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Wilson241.000$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Álex González221.000$201kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Aven272.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Medina241.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Burnett220.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Millar271.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Garcia271.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Castro230.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Clapinski270.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Armando Almanza260.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Nunez241.000$78kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Roskos24–—
Hector Almonte23–—
Brent Billingsley24–—
Amaury Garcia24–—
Julio Ramirez210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tejera220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 1999; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.