MIA⇄COL

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GordonP·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Gary Hughes net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $34M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1999 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pat WatkinsOF·26y·R/R

+$5.6M+$5.6M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#32 overall draft pick → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.