MIA⇄ARI

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$108.0M net +10.6

received +$66.4M+$66.4M ± $49M expected surplus · +$74.4M realized received 12.1 ± 6 expected · 13.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad PennyP·21y·R/R

+$63.1M+$63.1M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$78.4M 9.7± 5 exp WARrealized 12.3

Prior

Composite #5.0 prospect (Baseball America #5 (1999)) → 1.77/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.77/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Vladimir NúñezP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

Composite #76.0 pedigree (Baseball America #76 (1997)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Abraham NúñezOF·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$108.0M net -10.6

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $51M expected surplus · −$33.6M realized received 3.2 ± 6 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1999 odds 84% → 85% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt ManteiP·25y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $51M exp surplusrealized −$33.6M 3.2± 6 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

#656 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.